Research On The Key Areas And Paths Of Energy Transition In Beijing Under "Dual Carbon" Targets

With the aggravation of climate changes and the increasingly serious environmental problems,energy transition has been widely concerned.Since September 2020,General Secretary Jinping Xi has repeatedly proposed that China will strive to achieve the carbon peak by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060("Dual Carbon" Targets).As the crucial area of China’s blue sky defense war program and the leading demonstration area of energy policy,Beijing needs to vigorously promote energy transition and make positive contributions to the realization of China’s "Dual Carbon" Targets for carbon emissions reduction as soon as possible.Energy transition is a systematic project in which the structure of energy production and consumption is fundamentally changed.It is not only the comprehensive optimization of energy production and consumption patterns,but also the main means of carbon emission reduction in Beijing.Therefore,it has important theoretical and practical significance to study how to promote energy transition and promote carbon emission reduction in Beijing.This paper mainly studies the key areas and feasible paths of energy transition in Beijing in the future under the "Dual Carbon" Targets.Firstly,based on the Environmental Kuznets curve theory(EKC theory)and STIRPAT model,this paper makes a theoretical and empirical analysis on the carbon reduction effect of energy transition in Beijing.Secondly,by using text clustering and co-word analysis,this paper studies the focus and evolutionary logic of Beijing’s energy policy,and analyzes the future direction of Beijing’s energy transition policy.Then,the LEAP—Beijing model is established and six scenarios of energy transition policy in Beijing is designed.On this basis,this paper simulates the emission reduction potential and emission reduction paths of various departments in Beijing from 2020 to 2060 under different scenarios,and determines the key areas and feasible paths of Beijing’s energy transition.Finally,the paper puts forward policy suggestions to promote Beijing’s energy transition.The main conclusions of this paper are:Firstly,the situation of emission reduction in Beijing is still grim,and energy transition is the main driving force of carbon emission reduction in Beijing;Secondly,the energy transition policy represented by traffic electrification,renewable energy and energy efficiency improvement will become the main focus of Beijing’s future energy policy;Thirdly,raising the energy transition level of a single sector is not enough to restrain the growth trend of Beijing’s carbon emissions.Beijing needs the mutual energy transition of the whole society to achieve the "Dual Carbon" Targets for carbon emissions reduction;The key areas of energy transition are transportation,electricity,and commercial sectors,followed by thermal and industrial sectors,and finally life and agriculture sectors;Forth,Beijing should start with partial energy transition,then strive to achieve carbon emissions reduction peak-in 2025,and accelerate the transition to full energy transition in 2035;Fifth,in the policy of energy transition,Beijing should increase policy support for traffic electrification,renewable energy,energy saving and efficiency improvement,power substitution and energy security.There are two main novelties in this paper.Firstly,the novelty of research issues.The paper focuses on the key areas and feasible paths of energy transition in Beijing,which makes up for the shortcomings of the existing literature and related research.Secondly,the novelty of research methods.It is reflected in three aspects:one is to study the relationship between energy transition and carbon emissions in Beijing by using EKC theory and STIRPAT model.two is to use text clustering and co-wording analysis method to analyze the focus and evolutionary logic of energy policy in Beijing;three is to build the LEAP-Beijing model,which provides a quantitative analysis basis for the study of key areas of Beijing’s energy transition.To our knowledge,there is no literature using these three methods to study energy transition in Beijing.