Research On The Mechanism And Path Of Carbon Emission Reduction In Coal Resource-based Areas

In the process of industrialization,the world has been using a large amount of fossil fuels for a long time,which has led to the intensification of global warming.It is urgent to deal with the problem of global temperature rise.China is the country with the largest carbon dioxide emissions.The total carbon emissions are equivalent to the sum of the United States,Europe and Japan,accounting for about 28% of the global carbon emissions.Among them,the carbon emissions of coal resource-based areas account for24.2% of the total national carbon emissions(2019 data).Coal resource-based areas are characterized by large total carbon emissions,low degree of clean energy consumption structure,and insufficient utilization of renewable energy.How to promote energy conservation and emission reduction without affecting economic development is of great significance for coal resource-based areas to achieve high-quality development.As the largest coal producing province in China,Shanxi Province has long relied on coal energy to support regional economic development.The lock-in effect of heavy industrial structure and coal biased energy structure has made the carbon emissions of Shanxi Province continue to rise.At present,Shanxi Province is in an important stage of resource-based economic transformation and energy revolution.It is an important task for Shanxi Province to constantly improve energy utilization efficiency and promote low-carbon transformation of energy structure,and strive to get rid of the "resource curse".Under this background,this paper takes the prefecture level cities in Shanxi Province as the research object,builds a carbon dioxide emission reduction potential analysis framework,calculates the carbon emission efficiency,decoupling index of economic growth and carbon emissions of each city in Shanxi Province and the cost of emission reduction of each city in Shanxi Province,combines domestic and foreign carbon emission reduction experience,propose targeted and differentiated emission reduction paths for different types of cities and major energy consuming industries,and provide targeted policy recommendations for promoting energy conservation and emission reduction in Shanxi Province.The main research contents and conclusions of this paper are presented as follows:(1)The characteristics of energy utilization and carbon emissions in coal resource-based areas and their influencing factors are in-depth analysis.(2)Research on the current situation of energy utilization and carbon emissions in Shanxi Province.The overall carbon emissions change trend of Shanxi Province,cities and industries was measured by statistical analysis method,and the evaluation index system and transformation status of Shanxi’s energy utilization were determined by using the Grey Relation Analysis method.The research results show that the energy utilization in Shanxi Province has gradually become efficient,clean,and low-carbon,and the speed of energy transformation has increased since 2014,but there are still many problems such as heavy industrial structure.In the past 20 years,carbon emissions in Shanxi Province have increased by nearly 3 times,with a growth rate of 7.3%;Among them,Linfen has the highest carbon emissions,accounting for 15% of Shanxi’s total emissions;The electricity supply and production sector is the largest carbon emitter,accounting for60% of total emissions.(3)Carbon emission efficiency research.Using the SBM model of undesirable output,the carbon emission efficiency of Shanxi Province was measured by using carbon dioxide as the undesirable output.The results of the study show that the carbon dioxide emission efficiency of Shanxi Province in the past 20 years has been below 0.7,mainly due to the excessive dependence on resources to rapidly promote industrialization and urbanization.Taiyuan and Yuncheng have high carbon emission efficiency,while Datong and Yangquan have poor carbon emission efficiency.(4)Carbon emission reduction cost study.The direction distance function and stochastic frontier analysis are used to calculate the cost of carbon dioxide emission reduction in Shanxi Province.The scenario analysis method is used to predict the situation of carbon peak in Shanxi Province and calculate the cost of carbon peak emission reduction in Shanxi Province.The peak situation in Shanxi Province was predicted by scenario analysis method,and the cost of carbon dioxide emission reduction in Shanxi Province was calculated by combining the direction distance function and stochastic frontier analysis.The study shows that in the past 20 years,the cost of carbon dioxide emission reduction in Shanxi Province has shown a fluctuating upward trend,with an average emission reduction cost of 4740 yuan,among them,Taiyuan has the highest emission reduction cost,and Yangquan has the lowest emission reduction cost.Shanxi Province has increased the reduction of carbon intensity from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" periods to correspond to different carbon emission reduction costs,corresponding to 2.07 trillion yuan and 0.61 trillion yuan by 2030 respectively.(5)Comprehensively consider the three factors of carbon emission efficiency,the degree of decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions,and the cost of emission reduction,rank the comprehensive potential of carbon emission reduction of cities in Shanxi Province,and propose differentiated emission reduction paths from the perspective of city types and major emission industries based on the experience of carbon emission reduction at home and abroad.The innovations of this paper are:(1)in-depth analysis of the carbon emission characteristics and emission reduction mechanism of coal resource-based areas,and unified integration of carbon emission efficiency,the decoupling relationship between economic development and carbon emissions,and carbon emission reduction costs into the analysis framework for assessing carbon emission reduction potential for the first time,which is conducive to scientific,reasonable,and comprehensive assessment of carbon emission reduction potential of cities and cities in Shanxi Province,and to the development of differentiated emission reduction paths at all levels in Shanxi Province.(2)To provide an in-depth analysis of the inherent contradictions between economic growth and carbon emissions in different cities by combining econometric models and catch-up decoupling models.Through the investigation of the dynamic process of carbon emission reduction and economic development level catching up between cities and benchmark cities,as well as the research on the influencing factors of decoupling index,the shortcomings of the decoupling analysis in resource-dependent regions are compensated.(3)The directional distance function and stochastic frontier model are used to calculate the marginal emission reduction cost of Shanxi Province and cities at various levels for the first time,and the scenario analysis method is used to calculate the emission reduction cost of carbon peak in Shanxi Province,which can provide decision-making support for the formulation of emission reduction policies in Shanxi Province,such as emission reduction target setting,emission reduction intensity and time selection.