| In this thesis,we aim at analyzing the air quality,during 2019/01 to 2020/09,of16 cities（Binzhou city,Dezhou city,Dongying city,Heze city,Jinan city,Jining city,Liaocheng city,Linyi city,Qingdao city,Rizhao city,Tai’an city,Weihai city,Weifang city,Yantai city,Zaozhuang city and Zibo city）in Shandong province.In the first chapter,we mainly introduce the research background of air quality and the research status in China and abroad.The second chapter obtains historical data on air quality and atmospheric pollutant indicators from China Air Quality Online Monitoring and Analysis Platform.The collected data is descriptively analyzed from different angles（geographical and time angle）.From the analysis results based on geographical angle,it is shown that the air quality of the eastern coastal cities is significantly better than that of the mid-west cities.This is due to the high quality sea air and the geographical structure of midwest.When it is the time for indoor heating,the air quality affected by burning coal is always bad.It is not the case for the Weihai city and Yantai city as they are surrounded by sea to the north and south,which lessens the effects of burning coal for indoor heating.From the angle of time series,the graph which depicts the variation of AQI（Air Quality Index）month by month shows that the AQI of every city significant increases from November and decreases from February.The graph which depicts the variation of AQI from Monday to Sunday shows that every city has its top highest AQI on Saturday and it decreases from Tuesday.In the visualization analysis of effects of AQI,through trellis diagram,it is shown that the concentrations of PM2.5,PM10 and CO have the same trend as AQI,that is they increase when it is the form for indoor heating.O3has high concentration in summer,NO2has high concentration during October to January of the next year,and SO2has lower concentration in every month.In the third chapter,by using the K-means clustering analysis,the air quality of16 cities can be classified into three groups.The first class of cities includes Rizhao city,Weihai city,Yantai city and Qingdao city which have good air quality.The second class of cities includes Jinan city,Zibo city and Liaocheng city which have bad air quality.The third class of cities includes Dongying city,Linyi city,Tai’an city,Dezhou city,Jining city,Binzhou city,Zaozhuang city and Heze city which have normal air quality.In the fourth chapter,by using the ARMA modeling techniques,the ARMA models of each representative city from each of the three classes of cities are built.From the built ARMA models,the air quality,of the nearest future three days（from2020/10/01 to 2020/10/03）,of each representative city is forecast.It is shown that Qingdao city（in the first class）,Liaocheng city（in the second class）and Heze city（in the third class）all have good air quality in the near future three days（from2020/10/01 to 2020/10/03）.In the fifth chapter,we summarize the content of the full text,and puts forward relevant suggestions for the improvement of air quality. |
