| Climate is a common problem faced by all mankind.Global warming,glacier melting and sea-level rise caused by the massive emission of greenhouse gases have become increasingly severe,which has attracted extensive attention from the international community.Shandong Province is a large carbon emission province in China,and its complete and large-scale manufacturing industry generates a large amount of carbon emissions in production activities.Therefore,in order to achieve the harmony between environmental protection and economic development in Shandong Province,it is particularly important to conduct a systematic accounting and analysis of the motivation of carbon emissions in Shandong Province.Different from the traditional perspective,this study,based on the perspective of demand side,goes deep into the department level,and uses the input-output method to systematically calculate the overall and various departments’ carbon emissions at the demand side,consumption carbon emissions and investment carbon emissions in Shandong Province.Then,the change of total carbon emissions at the demand end was decomposed into direct carbon emission intensity effect,intermediate input structure technology effect and final demand effect by structural decomposition method,and the change of carbon emissions of various departments at the demand end was decomposed into complete carbon emission intensity effect,final demand scale effect and final demand product structure effect.The change of consumption carbon emissions is decomposed into complete carbon emission intensity effect and final consumption effect,and the change of investment carbon emissions is decomposed into complete carbon emission intensity effect and investment effect.Through the calculation of various types of carbon emissions in Shandong Province,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)From the overall level,the total carbon emission at the demand end of Shandong Province in 2012 was 1001.32 million tons,and the total carbon emission at the demand end of Shandong Province in 2017 was 811.2 million tons.Comparing the total carbon emission data at the production end of Shandong Province,it was found that the total carbon emission at the demand end of Shandong Province was greater than the total carbon emission at the production end of Shandong Province in two years.The total carbon emissions from consumption in Shandong decreased slightly from363.94 million tons in 2017 to 353.58 million tons in 2012.The total carbon emissions invested by Shandong decreased significantly from 637.37 million tons in 2012 to 457.62 million tons in 2017.(2)From the level of departments,the carbon emissions from the demand end of the construction sector are the highest.By comparing the carbon emissions data from the production end of all departments,it is found that the carbon emissions from the demand end of the construction sector are significantly higher than that from the production end,while the carbon emissions from the production and supply of electricity,heat,gas and water are significantly lower than that from the production end.The production and supply of electricity,heat,gas and water saw the largest increase in carbon emissions,up by 51.15 million tons;Carbon emissions from other manufacturing sectors decreased the most,by 134.13 million tons.In addition,non-metallic mineral products,construction,transportation,storage and postal services and other sectors of investment in carbon emissions reduction is also considerable.Through structural decomposition analysis of influencing factors of carbon emission in Shandong Province,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)The structural decomposition of the total carbon emission at the demand end of Shandong Province shows that the optimization of intermediate input structure technology is the main factor driving the decrease of total carbon emission in Shandong Province.The change of direct carbon emission intensity also inhibited the total carbon emission.And final demand is what’s driving the total increase.(2)The structural decomposition of the change of carbon emissions at the demand end of each department in Shandong Province shows that the reduction of total carbon emission intensity of each department leads to the decline of carbon emissions at the demand end of each industry.The change of the final demand scale of each department leads to the increase of carbon emissions at the demand end of each department.The change of final demand product structure leads to the increase of carbon emissions at the demand end of agriculture,forestry,husbandry,fishery and their services,non-metallic mineral products,other manufacturing,transportation,warehousing and postal services,wholesale and retail,accommodation and catering sectors,and the decrease of carbon emissions at the demand end of other sectors.(3)The decomposition of consumption carbon emission structure in Shandong Province shows that the change of complete carbon emission intensity inhibits all sectors,and the change of final consumption factors inhibits agriculture,forestry,husbandry,fishery and its services,transportation,storage and postal services,but promotes the other sectors.(4)It is found that the change of total carbon emission intensity can promote the carbon emission of petroleum,coking products and nuclear fuel processing products,and the production and supply of electricity,heat,gas and water,while inhibit the carbon emission of other sectors.The change of investment in agriculture,forestry,husbandry,fishery and its services,non-metallic mineral products,other manufacturing,transportation,storage and postal service,three sectors of investment carbon emissions will be suppressed,and the other sectors will promote.Finally,based on the above research results,relevant policy suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of carbon emission intensity,final demand,industrial structure and key carbon emission reduction industries. |
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