Empirical Decomposition And Peak Forecast Of Carbon Emissions In Five Major Transportation Modes: ——Taking The Three Provinces In Northeast China As Examples

Human society generates a large number of greenhouse gases in daily economic activities.Since 2007,China has become the world’s largest carbon emission country.At present,China’s carbon emissions account for 30%of the global total carbon emissions,exceeding the second and third places.Total US and EU carbon emissions（25%）.In order to actively assume international responsibility for energy conservation and emission reduction,the Chinese government has formulated a series of emission reduction policies.On November 12,2014,in the Sino-US Joint Statement on Climate Change,China promised to reach peak CO2 emissions around 2030 and will strive to reach its peak at an early date.The proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption will increase to about 20%.The transportation industry is one of the basic industries necessary for the development of the national economy and for the everyday lives of residents,and it is also one of the main sources of carbon emissions.High energy consumption and high pollution have always been problems in the transportation industry.The effective control of carbon emissions in the transportation industry is greatly important for achieving China’s carbon emission peak target.This paper takes the three provinces in Northeast China as the research object and conducts a subdivision study on the carbon emissions of five different modes of transportation:road,railway,air,waterway and pipeline transportation.First,we use the generalized Divisia index method（GDIM）to examine the factors affecting the carbon emissions of the five transportation modes from 2005 to 2016 and use Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the carbon emissions of the five major transportation modes in 2017-2030.The annual average rate of change is used for dynamic scenario analysis.The results show that the scale of investment is the primary factor affecting the carbon emissions of railway,road,air and pipeline transportation.The transportation scale is the primary factor affecting the carbon emissions of waterway transportation;in the same period,the influencing factors are different.The role of carbon transport in the transportation mode is not exactly the same;in different time periods,the same factors that affect growth and promote the carbon emission reduction effect are also different;in addition to the baseline scenario,the carbon emissions of the five modes of transportation in 2017-2030 gradually decline;the five types of transportation carbon emissions are expected to decline the most under the technological breakthrough scenario.And the peak time of each mode of transportation is advanced to different degrees.The development of transportation equipment using clean energy,performance improvement and vigorous promotion should be the main development path for energy conservation and emission reduction in the future transportation industry.Compared with the existing research,the main contributions of this paper are:（1）on the research object,refine the classification of transportation modes,include pipeline transportation into the research scope,and more accurately describe the distribution of carbon emissions in the transportation industry To make a more accurate reference for the overall carbon emissions of the transportation industry to reach a peak,which is convenient for "the right medicine".（2）In terms of research methods,the GDIM model was used for the first time to factorize carbon emissions from the transportation industry,and Monte Carlo simulations were used to predict future trends in carbon emissions from the transportation industry.The GDIM model can examine the effects of multiple absolute quantities.The decomposition results are not constrained by the identity.The calculation is simple and the results are accurate.（3）In terms of variable selection and data selection,three investment-related factors including investment scale,investment efficiency,and investment intensity were introduced to estimate the total energy consumed by private cars,making up for existing research that only targets vehicles operating in road transport.Carbon emissions statistics ignore the shortcomings of private car carbon emissions statistics.