Research On The Decomposition Of Factors Affecting China’s Industrial CO₂ Emissions And The Path To Peak

In today’s world,the process of economic globalization continues to accelerate,and the resulting demand for energy in various countries is increasing,leading to increasing carbon dioxide emissions and gradual deterioration of the climate.As the largest country in carbon dioxide emissions,my country is actively taking the responsibility of reducing carbon emissions.President Xi Jinping put forward at the 75th UN General Assembly: “China’s carbon dioxide emissions will strive to reach a peak before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.” Industry plays an important role in my country’s national economy,but The consumption of a large amount of fossil energy and the use of electricity in the industrial process make it account for about 70% of the total carbon emissions.Therefore,promoting carbon emission reduction in industrial sectors is the only way to achieve emission reduction targets.Studying the influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions and the direction and extent of each influencing factor,and exploring the future evolution of industrial carbon emissions under different scenarios on this basis,is of great significance to the realization of my country’s carbon emissions peak goals.On the basis of integrating and drawing on the existing research results,this thesis first used the power sharing method and the carbon emission coefficient method provided by IPCC to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions of China’s industrial industry from 2000 to 2019,and then combined with the previous research,8 carbon dioxide emission influencing factors were selected,and on this basis,the generalized Dee’s index decomposition method was used to decompose the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions and construct the carbon dioxide emission relationship according to the decomposition results.Then,according to the research of various scholars on the past and the future,the scenario analysis method is constructed to construct the benchmark scenario,the regulation scenario and the technological breakthrough scenario,and then the carbon dioxide emission relationship is combined with the scenario analysis method and the Monte Carlo simulation to explore the peak path of carbon dioxide emissions in the industrial industry under the benchmark scenario,regulation scenario and technological breakthrough scenario from 2020 to 2035 respectively.The research shows that: First,thanks to the various “energy saving and emission reduction”constraint indicators and policies proposed by the government during the period from the 11 th Five-Year Plan to the 13 th Five-Year Plan,industrial carbon dioxide emissions have maintained an increasing trend from 2000 to 2014.,But the growth rate decreased year by year.Until 2015,carbon dioxide emissions fell for the first time compared with the previous year.However,industrial carbon dioxide emissions continued to grow after that,indicating that the carbon peak was not achieved in 2015.Second,the factor decomposition results of industrial carbon dioxide emissions show that investment scale,economic output scale,and energy consumption are the main factors that promote the growth of carbon emissions,and investment carbon intensity and output carbon intensity are the key factors that promote reduction,while energy There is still much room for improvement in the carbon reduction effect of consumption carbon intensity,energy intensity and investment efficiency.Third,there are obvious differences in the evolution path of carbon emissions under different scenarios.In the baseline scenario,the industrial sector is likely to fail to achieve the carbon peak target before 2030;in the control scenario,the carbon dioxide peak time of the industrial sector is 2032.At this time,the peak value is 9.744 billion tons,which is a significant improvement from the baseline scenario,but still has not achieved the carbon peak before 2030;in the technological breakthrough scenario accompanied by the improvement of energy efficiency and the optimization of the energy structure,the industrial industry has a high probability of achieving The carbon peak target is reached by 2030,and the carbon peak time is between 2026 and 2029.In view of this,it is necessary to promote the control of total industrial energy consumption and intensity,improve investment efficiency,and deepen the structural reform of the energy supply side to better achieve the goal of peaking carbon by 2030.