Analysis And Simulation Of The Influencing Factors Of Chongqing Terminal Carbon Emission

In the face of increasingly severe climate problems,China pledged to strive to reach the peak carbon emissions around 2030 at the Paris world climate conference.Chongqing,as one of the four municipalities directly under the central government in China,has a relatively good economic foundation in the western provinces and cities.If it can achieve a greener economic growth mode and improve the emission efficiency,it will undoubtedly produce regional demonstration effect and make greater contribution to the environmental protection cause of our country.Based on this,this paper starts from the terminal energy consumption carbon emissions,excavates a series of influencing factors behind its growth,analyzes the future terminal carbon emissions in Chongqing under various policy scenarios,and provides reliable reference for Chongqing’s energy conservation and emission reduction work combined with the existing problems.First of all,the author calculates the terminal carbon emissions in Chongqing’s production and life;secondly,through LMDI decomposition method,the author studies the impact of various factors such as economic scale,population scale,energy structure and energy intensity on Chongqing’s terminal carbon emissions in 2005-2017;finally,by building leap Chong Qing model,it is policy oriented,Take 2017 as the prediction starting year,2018 as the first calculation year,and predict the carbon emissions of Chongqing in2018-2050.The main conclusions are as follows:during 2005-2017,the expansion of Chongqing’s economic scale is the main factor that causes the increase of carbon emission of terminal energy consumption,with a contribution value of 193.648 MTCO₂ and a contribution rate of 237.8%;the contribution value and contribution rate of energy intensity effect are-148.14MTCO₂ and-181.92%respectively,which are the main factors that inhibit the increase of terminal carbon emission,and the driving force is mainly from industrial energy intensity In addition,the"high carbonization"of industrial structure and energy structure and the increase of per capita energy consumption are also important factors for the increase of carbon emission of terminal energy consumption,with contribution values of 18.77 MTCO₂,9.37 MTCO₂ and 16.54 MTCO₂ of 23.05%,11.5%and 20.31%respectively.Meanwhile,the coefficient effect makes the carbon emission of terminal energy consumption decrease by-10.11MTCO₂,mainly from power emission The decrease of discharge coefficient comes from the decrease of thermal power ratio.Through the simulation of the terminal carbon emissions in 2018-2050,it is found that under seven scenarios,the terminal energy consumption carbon emissions in Chongqing can reach the peak before 2050.Among them,the peak time of policy strengthening scenario is the earliest,in 2031,the peak value is also the lowest is220.5MTCO₂;the policy continuation scenario is the most likely scenario,the peak appears in 2035,the peak value is 264.6 MTCO₂.In 2048,the peak value of policy weakening scenario is 343.1 MTCO₂.In addition,the scenarios of weakening economic scale and energy intensity,weakening industrial structure and energy structure,strengthening industrial structure and energy structure,and strengthening economic scale and energy intensity are 290.4 MTCO₂,280.8 MTCO₂,248.7MTCO₂ and 243.9 MTCO₂respectively,all of which are around 2035.Based on the research and analysis,the main policy recommendations of this paper are as follows:optimize the energy structure,reduce the proportion of coal and fuel,increase the proportion of natural gas as energy consumption,increase the investment in research and development,application and promotion of new energy technology,increase the proportion of production of"zero carbon power"such as hydropower and wind power,strengthen regional technology exchange and cooperation,produce products with higher added value,and focus on Reduce the energy intensity of various industries;actively optimize the industrial structure,control the carbon emission in the industrial field,build a low-carbon transportation system,and give full play to the potential of industrial structure to reduce the carbon emission of terminal energy consumption.