The Analysis Of The Relationship Between Energy Carbon Emissions And Water Resources In Surround Cities Of Beijing-Tianjin

The city is the main space carrier of human activities and an important area for the interaction between natural systems and socio-economic systems,which has a significant influence on the natural environment.Therefore,cities are an essential field in which natural and socio-economic systems interact closely with each other.With the increasing development of urbanization and industrialization,the exploitation of urban resources booms and the pollutants are discharged into the ecosystem,rapidly expanding its metabolism.Unfortunately,these fast processes contribute to serious environmental issues,such as climate change,resources shortage and environmental pollution.Therefore,describing urban metabolism and revealing its mechanism accurately play important roles to the sustainable urban management.Distribution of energy-related carbon emissions and water resources consumption is inconsistent at the city-level.In the meantime,to coordinate the relationship among energy,carbon emission and water resources,achieve the goal of energy saving,emission reduction and water saving to accurately and effectively achieve the goal of sustainable development.It is necessary to explore the spatial distribution characteristics of urban energy,carbon emission and water resources,explore the corresponding driving factors,and put forward corresponding policy recommendations.On the basis of combing and summarizing a large number of relevant literature at domestic and abroad,this dissertation comprehensively applies the theories of geography,energy economics,sustainable development and low-carbon concept,combining various statistical analysis methods,and then taking advantage of Arcgis software to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of energy consumption,carbon emissions and water resources in the sub-Industrial sectors in different cities.It was found that there was a significant spatial correlation between carbon emissions and water resources consumption.Based on the panel data of carbon emissions and water consumption in different cities,the driving models of corresponding extended STIRPAT carbon emissions and water resources are established,respectively.Then the panel data spatial model is further constructed to analyze the spatial effects and spillover effects.The key driving factors and spatial spillover effects of carbon emissions and water consumption are deeply studied,and the common critical factors affecting energy-water-carbon emissions are explored.Then,this dissertation establishes a LEAP-Tangshan model by taking Tangshan City as an example,and conducts in-depth research on the predicting the trend of carbon emissions and water consumption under the influence of energy consumption in Tangshan City and how to achieve the development goals of low-carbon and water-saving in Tangshan City.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of energy,carbon emissions and water resources consumption in different industries and sub-sectors of cities:The standard deviation ellipse of energy consumption,carbon emissions and water resources consumption shows the northeastern-southwestern oblique direction.The energy consumption of various cities shows a growth trend from 2005 to 2010,and some cities began to decline slowly in 2010-2105.The trend of carbon emissions basically coincides with the energy consumption.The water resources are extremely scarce and they are under severe water pressure and extreme water pressure in cities of Hebei.(2)Among the driving forces of energy-carbon-water resources utilization,technical progress is the main reason for the reduction of energy,water resources and carbon emissions;industry and economic structure have both positive and negative impacts on the utilization of industry resources.GDP,population size and urbanization are the main factors leading to the increase of energy,carbon emissions and water resources.Generally speaking,for energy consumption,industry has always been the largest consumer of all sectors,meanwhile,the construction industry,transportation industry and related manufacturing industries ranks the second;for water consumption,agriculture is the largest user and followed by industry and construction industry,including energy-water-intensive industry.(3)The prediction of energy consumption and carbon emission trend in Tangshan City has been completed.By comparing the four scenarios of REF,ISO,TOS and LCD,it is found that with the decrease of energy intensity and the gradually increasing of clean energy use,the reduction of total carbon emissions is more and more obvious.Under the comprehensive policy and technical scenario,the LCD scenario can achieve the goal of peak carbon dioxide in 2030.(4)The energy consumption demand and carbon emission trend of water resources production and supply industry in Tangshan City,as well as the water resources demand analysis in the process of energy production and transformation has been completed.Compared with other scenarios,energy water consumption in LCD scenario decreases significantly.Energy water intake and water consumption both experience an increasing trend before they began to decrease.Water intake reaches its peak around 2025,and water consumption keeps rising without inflection point.Effective control of energy consumption and optimization of energy structure can also inhibit the consumption of water resources.(5)The energy development path under the dual constraints of low-carbon and water-saving in Tangshan City has been presented to deepen the development of science and technology,improve the energy and water resource efficiency of terminal equipment,and introduce carbon capture technology into more departments.As to industrial structure optimization and upgrading,we should maintain stable development of primary industry(agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery),make the proportion of secondary industry decline,and promote the development of tertiary industry.When it comes to energy supply and consumption,we should change the structure of energy supply from the source,adjust and optimize the structure of energy terminal consumption and optimize technology to achieve low-carbon and water-saving development strategy.