The Low-carbon Economic Development Policy Analysis Based On CGE Model In China

Developing low-carbon economy has become the world trend in the future.In the course of the development of low-carbon economic the core issue is how to effectively slove the contradiction between fossil energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in China.This paper works up a static CGE model contained 11 departments. The model particularly highlights energy use and dioxide emissions.This paper builds SAM based on 2007 input-output table as the model dates base and developes the model GAMS software program. Then this paper simulates to analysis the policies about the low-carbon economy how to impact the socio-economic, which analyzes the carbon tax policy at different carbon dioxide emission reductions how to affect the energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, sectors of economic variables, and the macro-economic variables; analyzes the trend of marginal abatement costs, the marginal loss of trend GDP, the marginal trend of social welfare loss. This paper also analyzes how to impact the socio-economic variables under the energy efficiency change, energy substitution elasticity change, carbon tax use in different ways, non-full adjustment factor market etc scenario. This paper hopes to provide some reference for policies to develop a low carbon economy.