Simulation And Prediction Of Land Use Change Based On FLUS Model

Land is the carrier of human life.Human beings are constantly changing the way of land use and at the same time affecting the change of regional environment.Therefore,it is very important to study land use/cover changes.By constructing models,exploring the laws of regional land use evolution,and providing ideas for regional ecological protection,land use development,and the contradiction between land supply and demand.This paper uses GIS analysis technology to analyze the evolution of land use in Yongshou County in 2012,2015,and 2018.The FLUS model was used to simulate the land use data of Yongshou County in 2018.Three different scenarios are predicted for the future land use spatial pattern of Yongshou County.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)According to the third-phase land use data analysis of the land use evolution law in Yongshou County,it is concluded that the dynamics of land use conversion in Yongshou County from 2012 to 2015 and 2015 to 2018 were 0.05% and 0.06%,respectively,indicating that Yongshou County The county’s land use changes are relatively peaceful,and the main types of changes are construction land,arable land and grassland.(2)The accuracy of the land use spatial pattern in Yongshou County in 2018 simulated by the FLUS model was tested.The simulation accuracy was high.The Kappa coefficient was0.9239 and the grid accuracy rate was 89.43%,indicating that the FLUS model can better express the land in Yongshou County.Use the law of evolution and internal mechanism.(3)According to the particularity of land use types in the Loess Plateau,three scenarios,namely natural growth scenario,ecological protection scenario,and rapid urban expansion scenario,were set up to simulate the spatial pattern of land use in Yongshou County in 2030,and the land use in Yongshou County in 2030 was simulated.The qualitative and quantitative analysis of utilization changes in time-quantity-space provides a certain reference value for the government to make land-use planning decisions and land structure adjustments.