Evaluation And Simulation Of Earthquake Disaster Prevention And Mitigation Ability Based On System Dynamics

The occurrence of earthquake disasters is instantaneous and destructive.Earthquake disasters not only cause direct damage,but also easily cause secondary disasters.Sichuan Province is located at the junction of the Indian Ocean plate and the Asia-Europe plate,and the area west of 104 degrees east longitude contains many seismic belts such as Longmen Mountain that makes Sichuan Province one of the provinces with frequent earthquakes in China.It also reveals the monitoring and early warning,the defense capabilities of engineering facilities and other aspects are lacking to a certain extent,which makes Sichuan Province's disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities when facing a large earthquake disaster for the first time appear passive.Therefore,this thesis from the perspective of Sichuan Province's disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in the face of earthquake disasters explores the current situation of Sichuan Province's ability to prevent and reduce earthquake disasters since the Wenchuan Earthquake,and predicts the ability to prevent and reduce disasters in the face of earthquake disasters in the future,and proposes relevant strategies to improve capacity accordingly.The thesis consists of 3 parts,which evaluates and predicts the current situation and future development trends of the earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in Sichuan Province.First of all,this thesis summarizes the research progress of related earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities at home and abroad,and studies and analyzes the existing research methods and problems.Secondly,it analyzes the status of earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in Sichuan Province,according to that constructs an evaluation index system for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities with a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods,and analyzes the rationality of the constructed index system.The expert consultation method and SPSS software carried out factor reliability tests on the indicators,and finally determined a more reasonable indicator system.After data processing,the entropy weight-TOPSIS method was used to evaluate the current situation based on the calculation results.Finally,the system dynamics method is used to establish and test the Sichuan earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation capability system model.The sensitivity analysis results are applied to set five simulation schemes.The system dynamics software Vensim DSS is used to perform dynamic simulation prediction and plan optimization of the system model,so as to analyze the best development model of earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in Sichuan Province.Finally,combining the status quo of earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in Sichuan Province and the influencing factors of different schemes,based on the simulation results,targeted countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for improving the earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in Sichuan Province.The main conclusions drawn in the thesis are as follows:(1)From the perspective of evaluation,the overall performance of earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation in Sichuan Province is showing a steady upward trend.Among them,the fastest growing is the monitoring and early warning capabilities,and the slowest is the defense capabilities of engineering facilities.(2)The most sensitive state variable in the sensitivity analysis is the monitoring and early warning capability,which is in line with the status quo of the evaluation,and the most sensitive influencing factor is the level of economic development.(3)Five major programs are set according to the sensitivity factors.Based on simulation prediction analysis,the investment plan is the best choice for improving Sichuan's earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in the future.The main value of this thesis is to study the current situation and future development trends of earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in Sichuan Province.First,the evaluation index system of Sichuan Province's disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities was constructed,and the Sichuan earthquake disaster data was used for evaluation and analysis.From the research conclusions,it can be seen that the overall performance of disaster prevention and mitigation is steadily increasing,secondly,the software is used to build a model and set a research plan according to the research conclusions,it shows that the economic investment plan is the best choice for improving the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation in the future.The research results provide research ideas and theoretical support for promoting the development of disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in Sichuan Province.