Research On The Application Benefit Prediction Model Of Ocean Observation System In Disaster Prevention And Mitigation

In recent years,the ocean observing system has been widely used in the field of ocean disaster prevention and mitigation,which has produced great economic benefits.At the same time,the national "13th five year" development plan also includes the ocean three-dimensional observing system into the key projects of marine development.Therefore,scientific and effective prediction of the application benefits of the ocean three-dimensional observation system in the field of disaster prevention and mitigation will deepen the understanding of the application effect of the ocean three-dimensional observation system,and provide effective theoretical support for the development strategy of the ocean three-dimensional observation system.The existing researches on the application of ocean observation system in the field of disaster prevention and mitigation mainly focus on qualitative research,lack of quantitative methods to discuss the generation of the application benefits of ocean observation system,and the evaluation of the application benefits of ocean observation system is more post evaluation,with problems such as time lag,strong subjectivity and weak practical significance.Therefore,this paper introduces the method of qualitative and quantitative research to predict the application benefits of the three-dimensional ocean observation system in the field of disaster prevention and mitigation.Firstly,according to the development status of ocean observing system at home and abroad,the development goal of ocean three-dimensional observing system and the characteristics of ocean disaster loss,this paper studies the mechanism of application benefit generation of ocean three-dimensional observing system in the field of disaster prevention and mitigation.The results show that the three-dimensional ocean observation system first acts on the ocean disaster prevention and mitigation system,and then affects the ocean disaster system,reducing the losses caused by ocean disasters and generating economic benefits.At the same time,in the process of research on the mechanism of application benefit generation,the application effect index system of ocean three-dimensional observation system and the ocean disaster loss index system are constructed providing the basis of the further application benefit prediction research of the ocean three-dimensional observation system.Because there are many indexes that affect the application benefit of the ocean three-dimensional observation system in disaster prevention and mitigation,the relationship between variables is very complex and there are many uncertain factors in the process of benefit generation,so the main methods of the application benefit prediction of the ocean three-dimensional observation system in disaster prevention and mitigation are principal component analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.The test results show the prediction model has more than 99% significance,which proves the validity of the model,and the prediction results of the application benefits have reached more than 95% accuracy reflecting the high accuracy of the application effect calculate.The forecast consequences demonstrate that the application of the three-dimensional ocean observation system will reduce the comprehensive loss of ocean disasters by 49.39%,the affected population by 42.62%,the dead and missing population by 45.36% and the red tide affected area by 49.39%and so on.In the meantime,according to the sensitivity analysis,it can be determined that the future application of the three-dimensional ocean observation system in the field of ocean disaster prevention and mitigation should focus on the improvement of rescue operation efficiency,disaster analysis ability and disaster prediction accuracy;The application of the disaster prevention and mitigation system in the ocean disaster system focuses on the following four indicators: red tide affected area,direct economic loss,sunken damaged ships and affected population.Finally,according to the prediction results of the application benefits,the future development suggestions of the application of the ocean three-dimensional observation system in the field of disaster prevention and mitigation and the optimization strategy of the ocean disaster prevention and mitigation system are put forward.