Research On Coordinated Development Strategy Of Resource Utilization,Ecological Environment And Economic Growth In The Silk Road Economic Belt

Since entering the 21st century,with the rapid development of China's national economy,the total consumption of resources has shown a rapid growth trend.However,a large number of pollutants have been produced while the economy and society continue to develop resources,which has aggravated the vulnerability of the ecological environment.The contradiction between resource utilization,ecological environment and economic growth(“REE''for short)system is increasingly prominent.It is of great practical significance for sustainable development to realize the coupling and coordination of resource utilization,ecological environment and economic growth.In this paper,15 provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt were taken as examples.Firstly,based on the analysis of the development status of REE system in the provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt,the REE system coupling coordination degree evaluation index system was constructed and the index weight was determined,and the comprehensive development level of each subsystem from 2008 to 2018 was calculated and analyzed.The coupling coordination degree of REE system was calculated based on the coupling coordination degree model,and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the coupling coordination degree were analyzed.Secondly,based on the low level of coupling coordination and uneven distribution of provinces along the routes,the SD simulation model of REE system was constructed by using the System Dynamics(SD)model,and four different development strategies were set up:natural development strategy,high-speed development strategy,resource saving strategy and coordinated development strategy.Finally,a quantitative dynamic simulation of the four development strategies was carried out on the Vensim software platform to predict the future development trend,and the optimal strategy for coordinated development of the REE system of the Silk Road Economic Belt was obtained through comprehensive analysis.The main research results are as follows:(1)In terms of the comprehensive development level of REE system,the development level of resource utilization subsystem increased from 0.3019 in 2008 to 0.6241 in 2018 at an average annual rate of 10.67%;The ecological environment subsystem experienced the trend of decreasing first and then increasing.The level of economic growth subsystem was relatively low in 2008,the period of rapid growth from 2009 to2014,and the period of stable development from 2015 to 2018.In general,the comprehensive evaluation index of REE system showed a fluctuating upward trend,rising from 0.3536 in 2008 to 0.6294 in 2018,with an increase of 78.00%.(2)From the time series evolution of coupling coordination degree of REE system,the mean value of coupling coordination degree and coupling coordination degree both showed a fluctuating upward trend,among which,the mean value of coupling degree was between 0.9414 and 0.9931,and the province with the largest increase was Yunnan,which rose from the second last place in 2008 to the first place in 2018.The mean value of coupling coordination degree was between 0.5757 and 0.7901,with an increase of 37.24%.The province with the largest increase was Sichuan,which rose from the last place in 2008 to the third place in 2018.(3)From the spatial pattern of REE system coupling coordination degree,the provinces with high level coordination are Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang and Qinghai,the provinces with low level coordination are Beijing,Shanxi,Sichuan,Yunnan and Shanxi,and the province with low level coordination is Henan.The restraining factors for the coordinated development of most provinces are ecological environment and economic growth.The coupling coordination degree presents a positive“U”shaped distribution in the east-west direction,and gradually decreases from north to south.(4)From the simulation of four development strategies,the economic development level of natural development strategy is higher than that of resource conservation strategy,but lower than that of high-speed development strategy and coordinated development strategy;The GDP of high-speed development strategy is higher than that of the other three development strategies,which greatly improves the economic development level of the Silk Road Economic Belt,but the total resource consumption and CO₂ emission are the highest.This strategy,which promotes rapid economic growth at the expense of resources and environment,is difficult to achieve the sustainable development goals.The resource saving strategy has the lowest environmental pollution intensity,but the lowest economic development level.In summary,the coordinated development strategy is the optimal strategy,which promotes economic development while maintaining a better ecological environment level,and effectively promotes the coordinated development of REE system of the Silk Road Economic Belt.The coupling degree of REE system in the provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt has the characteristics of high overall level but uneven distribution,and the coupling coordination degree is not high overall level and obvious polarization.Therefore,through the construction of REE system SD simulation model,set up four kinds of development strategy,the simulation analysis,the coordinated development strategy for the silk road economic belt REE system the optimal strategy of sustainable development,put forward to optimize resource utilization structure,short board,cling to swallow the ecological environment“area”development opportunity,focus on low coordination provinces such as optimization strategy.It provides reference for making REE system coordinated development strategy and One Belt And One Road development plan of the Silk Road Economic Belt.