Research On Influence Factors And Forecast Of Xinjiang Economic Development Under The Background Of "Belt And Road"

Since the one belt,one road economic belt one belt,one road,the important core game area of Xinjiang's economic belt,has attracted widespread attention at home and abroad.Therefore,one belt,one road,Xinjiang economic development and its prediction and analysis are of great theoretical and practical value.The main contents of this paper include: First,one belt,one road,the other,and the other,we should establish an evaluation index system for Xinjiang's economic development,build a comprehensive evaluation model,and examine the significant effect of the "belt and road" policy on Xinjiang's economic development.First of all,from the four aspects of economic growth efficiency,economic growth intensity,economic growth risk and economic development structure,the evaluation index system of Xinjiang's economic development is established.Then,it constructs a multi factor comprehensive evaluation model of Xinjiang's development,and uses the actual historical data for empirical analysis.Finally,one belt,one road policy one belt,one road,and the other,whether there is any difference in economic development in Xinjiang is analyzed.It is found that the initiative of "one belt and one road" has indeed promoted Xinjiang's economic development effectively.Secondly,the VAR model of Xinjiang's economic development influencing factors analysis is established,and empirical analysis is carried out with real historical data.First of all,the main influencing factors of Xinjiang's economic development are screened out by factor analysis;then,the stability of VAR model is estimated and analyzed to verify the applicability of the model.Then,the VAR model is established to analyze the relationship between the main influencing factors and Xinjiang development comprehensive index.Finally,the rationality of the method is verified.Thirdly,based on the VAR model impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,the influence trend and influence degree of influencing factors are analyzed,and the empirical analysis is carried out.Firstly,the impulse response of VAR model is analyzed,and the dynamic response of each influencing factor is discussed.Then,with the variance decomposition of VAR,the contribution rate of economic disturbance of each index is analyzed.Finally,through empirical one,we find that one of the "one belt,one road" initiative is that Xinjiang's economic development has been continuously optimized,and its economic growth risk is small.Fourthly,the prediction model of comprehensive index of economic development based on Bayesian time series reasoning is established,and its validity is verified by simulation experiment.Firstly,the method of estimating the parameters of posterior distribution based on Gibbs sampling in MCMC is given,and Doodle is drawn.Then,the ARMA model is established,the parameters are estimated by Bayes,and the economic development data of Xinjiang is simulated and analyzed by using the software package of WinBUGS.Finally,the simulation results show that the time series model based on Bayesian estimation is more accurate than the classical time series model.