The Impact Of Climate Change On Farmers' Income In China

Climate change has aroused strong concern all over the world.Climate change not only significantly changes the climate resources in different regions,but also affects other industries.Agriculture,as the cornerstone of economy,is the most impacted industry under climate change.At present,scholars have reached a consensus that climate change affects crop yield,and we should pay more attention to the relationship between climate change and farmers' income.Because farmers are an important part of China's 1.4 billion people,the stable growth of their income is related to social stability and harmony.Therefore,this paper uses the provincial panel data from 1995 to 2018,constructs a fixed effect model based on the expanded income determination model,empirically analyzes the economic impact of climate change on income of rural residents in China,and identifies the key climate factors affecting the per capita disposable income of rural residents in China.At the same time,this paper studies the impact of climate change on farmers' income in different regions,and finds that climate change mainly affects farmers' operating income and wage income.Based on the above findings,it is assumed that climate variables affect farmers' income through the two paths of influencing agricultural product market and non-agricultural industry development.The stepwise regression mediation effect model and bootstrap mediation effect test are used to prove the significance of the two paths of climate change.The results show that climate factors and their changes have a significant impact on the per capita disposable income of rural residents in China.Generally speaking,the annual average temperature rise and annual average precipitation increase have a nonlinear positive impact on the income of rural residents.At the same time,the increasing trend of temperature change can have a positive impact on the per capita disposable income of rural residents,and the increasing trend of precipitation change has a negative impact on farmers' income.