Study On The Welfare Effect Of Climate Change On Farmers In China

The "2017 China Climate Bulletin" shows that China's current flood and waterlogging disasters are relatively prominent,with features such as high frequency,strong continuity,and high strength.At the same time,the number of high-temperature days increases and the intensity increases.The average fiscal expenditure on natural disaster relief in China from2008 to 2016 reached RMB 2 trillion annually.In addition,Mc Kinsey's research report “From bread basket to dustbowl?” shows that climate change will exacerbate drought in the north,causing farmers in the region to suffer major income losses.If no action is taken,35 million farmers will lose more than 50% of their income.The impact of climate change on human beings is multi-factor,comprehensive,and irreversible.In particular,the most basic agricultural production of human production and life has a huge impact.The impact on the most fundamental food production of agricultural production directly affects human life and Economic welfare social development in all aspects.As a producer of grain,the change in production directly affects the welfare level of different subjects,and then affects the economic behavior of different subjects.Analyzing the impact of climate change on agricultural production and farmers' welfare effects is of great significance in solving the balance of grain supply between regions and realizing the strategy of rural rejuvenation.This article takes grain as the research object,based on the macro and micro perspectives,taking the Northeast of China's important commodity grain base as an example.In the study of climate change on the basis of food production,learning from Minot's Residents' Welfare Effect Model,we constructed Rural Residents' Productive Welfare Effect Models in Northeastern Provinces,and measuring the rural residents' grain production welfare.The results show that extreme weather and severe weather have a certain degree of negative impact on grain production in Northeast China.Precipitation has a positive impact on grain production in Northeast China within a reasonable range.Raising the level of technology,increasing capital investment and the number of grain-growing people have a positive impact on food production in Northeast China.In recent years,the level of farmers' welfare in the provinces of Northeast China has been continuously rising.The increase in grain production has increased the level of local farmer production welfare,and there are differences in different provinces.At the same time,several scholars predict that the extreme temperatures in Northeast China will occur more frequently and the precipitation will decrease.If other non-climatic factors remain unchanged,the food production in the Northeast will be reduced,the welfare effect of farmers' producers will be reduced,and the enthusiasm of farmers for grain production will be affected,threatening China's food security.Based on the above conclusions,combined with the first document issued by the CPC central committee in 2018,the paper puts forward some suggestions on improving grain yield and welfare of farmers in Northeast China grain-producing areas.