Impact Of Grain Production On Farmers' Income Based On Climate Change Perspective

Over the past century,due to changes in the natural environment and the impact of human activities,the global climate has undergone significant changes,and the most important features of the performance is global warming.According to the fifth IPCC report in 2013,the average temperature of the global land and sea surface has increased by 0.85 ? since 1880,and compared with 1850-1900,the average temperature in 2003-2012 has increased by 0.78 ?.In the context of global climate change,changes in climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation lead to frequent occurrence of extreme disasters like droughts and floods,which has the great impact on agricultural production which is closely linked with the climate.Agriculture is the basic industry of the national economy.As a developing agricultural producing country,increasing grain output and raising farmers' income are the two long-term goals of China's agricultural development and an important guarantee to achieve national grain security.The impact of climate change on China's agricultural production is not only to reduce grain production,but also to influence farmers' income through grain production and to influence the coordination between farmers' income and grain production.This paper is the research results of the National Social Science Fund Project "Agricultural Income Fluctuation under Climate Change and Its Impact on China's Grain Security"(14BJL079),which summarizes climate change in China from the aspects of temperature,precipitation and meteorological disasters,and analyzes the impact of climate change on grain production in China,and discusses the characteristics and main causes of grain production affecting farmers' income.In the empirical analysis,taking the northeastern region as an example,this paper constructs the VAR model and uses Johensen co-integration test and VEC model to analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term fluctuation effect between grain yield and farmers' income under the influence of climate factors.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)the long-run effects of grain production and grain prices on farmers' income in northeast China have moderating effects on short-term fluctuations,without considering climate change.In the short term,grain output has a significant negative impact on farmers' income,which is in line with the logic of ?low prices for grain hurt the farmers?.However,in the long run,the negative impact of grain output on farmers' income is not significant.(2)Under the condition of climate change,the relationship between grain output,grain price and farmers' income in short-term fluctuation deviating from long-term equilibrium changed from significant to non-significant,but in the long run,the negative effect of grain yield on farmers' income changes from non-significant to significant,indicating that the impact of climate change on grain production and farmers' income is a long-term trend.Finally,based on the above conclusions,this paper analyzes the conflict between grain production and farmers' income in future climate change,and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.