The Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment Of Farmers In The Weibei Arid Plateau Under The Background Of Climate Change

Climate change and all kinds of disastrous events caused by it pose a serious threat to natural resources.As the main body of agricultural activities,farmers usually rely on traditional ways such as animal husbandry and farming to maintain their livelihood,which is highly dependent on natural resources.Therefore,farmers are particularly vulnerable to climate change,especially in developing countries,because their agricultural population accounts for the majority of the national population and their economic and social bases are relatively weak,their sensitivity and vulnerability are more obvious.It is very important to make clear the livelihood vulnerability of farmers in the context of climate change for making effective policies to adapt to climate change and reducing the livelihood vulnerability of farmers in corresponding areas.In this paper,livelihood vulnerability assessment is put under the background of climate change.Based on 342 survey data of 8 survey villages in Weibei dryland of Shaanxi Province and relevant data of the study area,with the measured data of climate change and farmers' perception of the trend of climate change in the study area,this paper studies different conditions of livelihood capitals(natural capital,physical capital,financial capital,social capital and human capital)based on the stainable livelihood framework under the climate change background.Then,an evaluation system for the livelihood vulnerability of farmers in the study area is established by using the analysis framework of "exposure-sensitivity-adaptability".Moreover,multiple linear regression method is used to explore the various factors affecting the livelihood vulnerability of farmers in the study area.The conclusions are as follows:(1)In terms of space,the distribution of annual average temperature in Weibei dryland from 1990 to 2019 shows the trend of increasing from north to south;the spatial distribution of temperature of four seasons all show the trend of increasing from north to south,and the spatial distribution of average precipitation of four seasons does not show a relatively consistent trend.The average precipitation in spring and autumn shows the trend of increasing from northeast to southwest,and the average precipitation in summer and winter shows an increasing trend from the middle to the east and west.In terms of time,the temperature and precipitation in 1990-2019 show an increasing trend,and the temperature and precipitation of the four seasons also show an obvious increasing trend.Farmers in the study area have perception of climate change,and it is generally believed that the temperature has increased in recent years,but the perception of precipitation change in different seasons is different.Some farmers feel that the average precipitation in summer has increased in recent years,while others think that the average precipitation in winter has decreased.In terms of drought,farmers perceive that the frequency of drought does not change much.(2)From the perspectives of natural capital,physical capital,financial capital,social capital and human capital,this paper analyzes the livelihood capital of farmers in the study area under the background of climate change.It can be seen that the cultivated land quality in the study area is generally good,and the farmer households have a certain material basis,but their fund reserve is insufficient.In case of economic difficulties,more farmers will turn to relatives;the labor in the family is lack,the overall education level of the family is at a medium level,and the health condition of the family is good;the rural society is harmonious and stable,and the villagers can "live in peace".Climate change has brought a certain negative impact on the livelihood capital of farmers in the study area.The most negative impact of financial capital is 3.65,followed by human capital(3.52),and the least negative impact is physical capital(3.09).Among different types of farmers,the livelihood capital of middle-income farmers is the most negatively affected by climate change(3.39),the livelihood capital of low-income farmers is the least negatively affected by climate change(3.29);the livelihood capital of farmers with middle-education level is the most negatively affected by climate change(3.38),and the livelihood capital of farmers with high-education level is the least negatively affected by climate change(3.13);the livelihood capital of young farmers is the most negatively affected by climate change(3.47),the livelihood capital of old farmers is the least negatively affected by climate change(3.11);the livelihood capital of pure farmers and concurrent farmers is the same negatively affected by climate change(3.39),the livelihood capital of off-farming farmers is the least negatively affected by climate change(3.34)?Different income levels and different livelihood types have no significant impact on the perception of the climate change impact;different ages have significant impact on the perception of human capital and social capital affected by climate change;different education levels have significant impact on the perception of social capital and physical capital affected by climate change.(3)Based on the assessment of farmers' livelihood vulnerability under the background of climate change in the study area,it is found that the degree of risk exposure of farmers(0.531)is higher than that of sensitivity(0.324),and the adaptability(0.426)is between these two dimensions.Among the farmers with different income levels,the vulnerability of low-income ones(0.046)is the highest,and that of middle-income ones(0.035)is the lowest.Among the farmers with different education levels,the vulnerability of low-education level ones(0.041)is the highest,and that of high-education level ones(-0.049)is the lowest.Among the farmers with different ages,the livelihood vulnerability of the elderly farmers(0.060)is the highest,and that of the young farmers(0.000)is the lowest.Among the different types of livelihood,the livelihood vulnerability of pure farmers(0.067)is the highest,while that of concurrent farmers(0.030)is the lowest.(4)The factors that affect the vulnerability of farmers' livelihood under the background of climate change are divided into three categories:the characteristics of the head of the household,the attributes of the family and the livelihood capital.Among the explanatory variables of household head characteristics,the age of the household head has a significant positive impact on the livelihood vulnerability of farmers.The explanatory variables of family attributes do not show a significant impact on livelihood vulnerability.Among the various elements of livelihood capital,the types of crops planted,the number of people believed to be trustworthy in the village and the size of the family have a significant positive impact on the livelihood vulnerability of farmers.The state subsidies received one year,the relationship between villagers and the overall working capacity of the family have a significant negative impact on the livelihood vulnerability of farmers.