Yangtze River Delta Region's Scenario Analysis Of Energy Demand And Carbon Emissions Based On LEAP Model

For a long time,fossil energy sources such as coal,oil,and natural gas have made a significant contribution to the advancement of modern human civilization.However,the carbon dioxide produced by its combustion has also become the main source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.Nowadays,climate change is one of the most serious challenges facing humanity.The Yangtze River Delta region is China's most economically active region and a large energy consumption region.It is particularly important to find a road suitable for low-carbon sustainable development in the Yangtze River Delta.Based on statistical data of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2005 to 2016,this study uses the LEAP model as a research tool to analyze the energy demand and carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Delta region from 2020 to 2050 under different scenarios.The results show that under the baseline scenario,the energy demand and carbon emissions of the 3 provinces and 1 city in the Yangtze River Delta region will continue to grow;under the condition of fully tapping the energy conservation and emission reduction potential of the Yangtze River Delta region,the energy demand and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region can be realized slow growth and even decline in the future.The study found that in the short term,improving end-use energy efficiency is the most effective driving force for reducing total energy demand in Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang,and economic transition is the most effective driving force for reducing total energy demand in Anhui Province.In the long term,the economic transformation,which is the optimization of the industrial structure,is the most effective way to reduce the total energy demand of Jiangsu Province,Zhejiang Province and Anhui Province,and improving the end-use energy efficiency is the most effective driving force to reduce the total energy demand of Shanghai.Vigorously developing non-fossil energy is an effective option to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the 3provinces and 1 city of the Yangtze River Delta region in both the short and long term.