Evolution Model Of Energy Conservation And Emission Reduction Based On The Industrial Structure Optimization And Scenario Forecast

With the economy rapidly develops, energy consumption of China continuously grows. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 364.522 billion in 1978, but it gets to 34050.687 billion in 2009. At the same time, energy consumption is 0.571 billion ton of standard coal equivalent (tce) in 1987, but it gets to 3.066 billion tce in 2009. Energy consumption is about 3.25 billion tee in 2010, and coal consumption gets to 2.27 billion tce, which accouts for 69.94 percent of the whole energy consumption. The economic growth mode of high energy consumption and energy consumption structure result in serious environment pollution. The volume of industrial wastewater discharge gets to 209.03 billion tons. The contradiction between economic development and energy consumption and environment pollution increasingly sharps, so the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction increases.Considering the status quo of China's energy and environment, and based on the development trend and evolution law of industrial structure, this paper analyses the available data using input-output analysis method. The paper uses the evolution theory to put up evolution trend goal of energy consumption and pollution discharge, and sets up a dynamic model of energy conservation and emission reduction to study the strategy of energy conservation and emission reduction and the method of optimizing industrial structure. Use the model to calculate and analyse the data of China and the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2008. The result shows that optimizing industrial structure is a strategy of realizing energy conversation and emission reduction. We should decrease the Gross Domestic Product of secondary industry, and pay attention to the development of tertiary industry. Based on the model, the paper uses scenario analysis to forecast China's economic product, energy consumption and pollution discharge from 2009 to 2015, and analyses the prediction result. The paper provides theoretical basis for mading the strategy of energy conversation and emission reduction and optimizing industrial structure. At the same time, it provides a new perspective for realizing the sustainable development of economy, energy and environment in China.Finally, the article believes that optimizing the industrial structure plays an important part to realize the goal of energy conversation and emission reduction. But we also should improve the energy technology, optimize energy structure and develop new energy industry.