Transition Path Of China's Energy Consumption Structure And Its Optimization Model In A Low-Carbon Context

Along with the rapidly increasing economic level,a huge amount of carbon dioxide?CO₂?emissions mainly emitted from fossil fuel burning has posed tremendous environmental challenges,particularly the global climate change.As the world's largest energy consumer and CO₂ emitter,China is now actively devising a series of carbon mitigation policies for achieving its CO₂ emissions reduction targets in the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution?INDC?.However,due to the high-carbon fuels?e.g.,coal and petroleum?dominated energy consumption structure,it is of great urgent to achieve a low-carbon transition for China's energy system,which can promote the economic growth,social stability,and sustainable development.Given the above background,on the basis of systematic summary of relevant theories and studies,this dissertation aims to investigate the potential transition path of China's energy structure and its optimization model from a low-carbon perspective using qualitative and quantitative approaches.Some innovative results are achieved as follows:?1?On the basis of calculating China's CO₂ emissions,this dissertation analyses the spatiotemporal characteristics of CO₂ emissions and energy structure transition in China from muti-scale perspective.The results indicate that the spatiotemporal characteristics of CO₂ emissions and energy structure transition are generally similar,implying that energy structure transition could be a effective tool for reducing China's CO₂ emissions;?2?to explore whether low-caron energy and clean energy can be the effective paths of energy structure transition in China,this dissertation investigates the dynamic relationship between China's CO₂ emissions and low-caron energy?i.e.,natural gas?and clean energy?i.e.,nuclear energy and renewable energy?by employing various econometric tools.The results indicate that increasing low-caron energy and clean energy consumption can lower CO₂ emissions CO₂ emissions in most of Chinese provinces,indicating that low-caron energy and clean energy can be the effective paths of energy structure transition in China.However,the mitigation effects of low-caron energy and clean energy on CO₂ emissions might be obscured by increasing economic growth and high-carbon fossil fuels consumption,as their current shares in China's total energy mix are relatively;?3?using an extended logarithmic mean Divisia index?LMDI?method,this dissertation decomposes the changes in the CO₂ emissions for different provinces and different sectors in China during various periods,so as to quantitatively evaluate the carbon mitigation effect of the current energy structure transition path in China.The results indicate that the most significant factor in inhibiting the country's emissions is energy consumption structure effect.Furthermore,energy production and heavy industry are the key driving sectors responsible for promoting China's CO₂ emissions.In addition,these two sectors'carbon mitigation effects of energy structure transition are considerably higher than the levels seen in other sectors;?4?based on the long range energy alternatives planning system?LEAP?model,the optimization model of China's energy structure transition path?i.e.,LEAP-China model?is developed to forcast China's CO₂ emissions up to the year 2040 under various energy structure adjustment scenarios and,thus,discover the optimal transition path of China's energy structure.The results indicate that in addition to ESA-IV scenario,the future trends of China's CO₂ emissions between 2015and 2040 under other scenarios are generally similar,i.e.,displaying a downward trend.Moreover,ESA-III scenario is the optimal transition path of China's energy structure between 2015 and 2040.In other words,the Chinese government should promote growth in the natural gas industry in the short and medium run?i.e.,2015-2030?,while the growth in the nuclear energy and renewable energy industries should be promoted in the long run?i.e.,2030-2040?.In addition,under ESA-III scenario,energy production and heavy industry have much stronger potential for CO₂ emissions reduction than do other sectors;and?5?by employing the second-generation econometric tools and extended LMDI method,this dissertation identifies the key socio-economic drivers of low-caron energy and clean energy and,thus,put forwards some policy suggestions for promoting growth in the natural gas,nuclear energy,and renewable energy industries.The results indicate that economic level,urbanization rate,energy intensity,and economic structure positively affect natural gas consumption in China,while it is negatively related to energy consumption structure.In addition,the key driving forces responsible for promoting growth in the nuclear energy and renewable energy industries are economic development and energy transition effects,while energy consumption structure and energy intensity effects are the most significant factor in inhibiting growth in the nuclear energy and renewable energy industries.Based on the above findings,a series of policy implications for mitigating China's CO₂ emissions and promoting growth in the natural gas,nuclear energy,and renewable energy industries is provided.