| Climate policy is the core issue of global public governance,and Carbon Emission Allowances(CEAs)are an important starting point for climate policy.As the world's largest energy consumer and the country with the largest carbon emissions,China has been actively involved in the practice of global climate governance.In "The Paris Agreement",China proposed a reduction goal of reducing carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% by 2030.In order to further achieve the "30·60" dual-carbon target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP announced in 2020 by 65% compared with 2005 and striving to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060,China still needs to make greater efforts.To achieve the goals of carbon emission reduction requires the clarification of the total carbon emission target,that is,the first step in formulating the emission reduction policy is to calculate the total target of carbon emission reduction accurately.With the total target,the micro-target can be clearly decomposed.At the same time,the various uncertainties faced in the process of converting the global temperature rise target to the national emission reduction commitments have become a major obstacle to the determination of the total carbon emission target.In the study of climate change research and assessment,scenario analysis has become an important tool to deal with the uncertainties of economic society and climate change.In the CMIP6 climate model used in the IPCC AR6 released in 2021,the developer announced a set of new emission scenarios driven by different socio-economic models that is The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs).Based on The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)database,this paper calculates the total amount of carbon dioxide quota in China for 2020-2030 under three scenarios,where those scenarios meet both the international temperature rise target and China's economic and social realities.Further,by downscaling the national total CEAs to the provincial level,we formed the initial CEAs scheme of all provinces.However,the initial CEAs scheme has some defects such as huge difference in allowance allocation and unmatched allowance quantity with regional economic development and population scale.To solve these problems and alleviate the regional inequality of allowance allocation,this paper established a comprehensive allowance allocation mechanism — ZSG-DEA model,which takes into account several principles such as fairness and efficiency.Judging from the optimization results,the scheme after model iteration has significantly improved in terms of distribution differences.Combined with the difference of allowance before and after provincial allocation,the results shows that the initial allowance flows from north to south and from the provinces with more historical emissions to the more developed provinces.An important implication for this is that the historical development mode of these reduced provinces is heavily dependent on energy consumption,so they should bear more responsibility for historical emissions.By offsetting quotas to high-growth regions,it would also support regional economic development as much as possible without being constrained by the carbon footprint.In turn,it may help provinces with advanced economic development to carry out more green investment,innovate low-cost emission reduction technologies,and feed back to regions with greater pressure on carbon emissions.Finally,the average annual space of carbon emission of each province is regard as an important indicator of the emission reduction pressure of each province.For regions with different emission reduction pressures,this paper also puts forward different policy suggestions,in order to provide support for the optimization of national carbon emission reduction policies. |
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