Simulation Study On Water Scarcity In Different Socio-economic Scenarios

Population growth and socio-economic development have put tremendous pressure on water resources in different regions of the world.The expected climate change and socio-economic development and changes may further exacerbate the pressure of water shortage.At present,studies have investigated the changes of renewable water resources under different climate change scenarios,but few studies have considered the pressure brought about by climate change and socio-economic development.In this paper,by integrating climate change and socio-economic development under a unified assessment framework,the assessment of water shortages in different socio-economic scenarios and further studies of the main drivers of water scarcity in different river basins.This provides us with a clear understanding of the status of water resources in different regions of the world,and the pressures they face,the rational allocation of regional water resources,and the relevant reference for the development and management of regional society,as well as the current climate change and the intensification of human activities,This study has very important significance.This paper first estimates the water demand in the 21 st century based on the shared socioeconomic approach(SSP),and then uses the climate forecast under the “representative concentration approach(RCP2.6,RCP6.0,RCP8.5)” scenario to estimate the supply of renewable water.And under different social models,assess the water shortage in different regions of the world,and further analyze the impact of the climate system and human system on water scarcity changes.The conclusions of this article are:(1)Under the three climate models of GFDL-ESM,Had GEM2-ES and IPSL-CM5 ALR,the global hydrological model Xanthos simulation found that the global future water supply has increased significantly in Canada,Russia,and India.In half,southeastern China,the Middle East,parts of South America and Southeast Asia,there has been a marked decrease.(2)Under different social development scenarios,global water demand has risen from the base year 2005 to the end of this century.The change trend of water demand in different sectors under different scenarios is basically the same.Among them,the water demand of power generation and primary energy conversion will decline in the future,and irrigation water,domestic water,livestock water and industrial manufacturing water will increase in the future.of.In addition,water demand for biomass energy is increasing in the future,and it has become another major water demand sector,which needs to be paid attention to.(3)By using the water shortage index,and then using the global change assessment model to assess water scarcity in different regions of the world,the spatial distribution of water scarcity is basically the same under three different social models,and is expected to be in eastern China.Northern India and the Middle East may experience extreme water shortages by 2095.Further,by analyzing the population living in different water shortages,it is found that by 2050,half of the world's population may live in severe water shortages.If the corresponding mitigation measures are not taken,the future water shortages may further deteriorate.(4)About 80% of the global water scarcity changes are driven by human systems,and the water scarcity in local areas will be reduced by the human system.At the same time,after adding water resource technology innovation to the SSP scenario,the water shortage change in some regions may change its leading factor in different scenarios.Considering the combined impact of the two systems,it is found that in the SSP1 scenario,25% of the land's water shortage is decreasing,while in SSP2,SSP4,and SSP5,about 10% of the land's water shortage is decreasing.However,in different scenarios,water shortages in some areas are increasing.