Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment And Prediction Based On Ecosystem Services

The continuous increase of human activities and the frequent occurrence of natural disasters have accelerated the evolution of landscape structure,caused great ecological risks to landscape function and ecosystem,and led to many serious ecological problems,affecting the sustainable development of society and natural ecosystem.Therefore,how to correctly assess the current and future ecological risks is crucial to alleviate the contradiction between sustainable development and environmental protection.Landscape ecological risk refers to the possible negative effects of natural or man-made factors on landscape pattern and ecological process.The scientific evaluation of landscape ecological risk can provide scientific basis for prediction and prevention of regional ecological risk,supervision and optimization of landscape pattern.Therefore,with the support of ArcGIS,PLUS,Fragstats,In VEST and other data processing platforms,this paper processed remote sensing monitoring images of 2000,2010 and 2020 in the study area to obtain the spatial distribution map of landscape components in Min River Basin.The landscape dynamic attitude model was used to analyze the dynamic changes of landscape components in the Min River Basin from 2000 to 2020,and the spatial distribution of landscape components in the study area in 2030 was predicted based on the SSPs scenario framework,and the spatial-temporal changes of landscape components in the future were explored.Secondly,we used landscape fragmentation,landscape separation and landscape dominance to measure landscape disturbance,and used ecosystem services such as water production,soil conservation,carbon sequestration and food supply as evaluation methods to improve landscape vulnerability,so as to analyze the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of landscape patterns in the past and future.Finally,a landscape ecological risk model was constructed based on the improvement of landscape disturbance degree and landscape vulnerability degree based on ecosystem services to evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution and change of landscape ecological risk in the study area from 2000 to 2030.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Forestland was the main landscape type in Min River Basin from 2000 to 2020.The area of forestland decreased year by year,while the area of construction land increased gradually.The cropland and water area increased first and then decreased.There was little change in grassland area during the study period.From 2000 to 2020,all landscape types in the Min River Basin changed very slowly,and the comprehensive dynamic attitude was 3.94%and 3.26%,respectively.The spatial pattern of landscape composition in Min River Basin under the five SSPs scenarios in 2030 is basically the same.The urban land is mainly distributed in the south and southeast of the basin,while the urban land is mainly distributed in the north and southeast.Compared with 2020,the Min River Basin is expected to experience rapid urban expansion,and urban land is expected to continue to expand southward and eastward.Under SSP3 scenario,grassland and cropland will be transformed into urban land with the largest area,which is estimated to be 360.92 km2 and 368.53 km2.Under the SSP4 scenario,the conversion area of grassland and cropland to urban land is the smallest,which is estimated to be 191.94 km2 and 280.03 km2.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the landscape disturbance degree in the Min River Basin showed a trend of first increase and then decrease.In 20 years,the value of landscape disturbance decreased by 5.41%.From the perspective of spatial scale,the landscape disturbance degree in the Min River Basin from 2000 to 2020 generally showed the spatial distribution characteristics of "high in the southwest and low in the southeast","large aggregation and small dispersion",and the spatial pattern changed significantly.In 2030,the watershed landscape disturbance degree under the five SSPs scenarios presented an arrangement of“SSP5>SSP2≥SSP3>SSP4>SSP1”.In the SSP1 scenario in 2030,the landscape disturbance degree of the Min River Basin presents the overall spatial distribution pattern of "the center is low and the periphery is high",while the SSP2-SSP5 scenarios are the spatial distribution pattern of "high in the south and low in the north".The high and high interference areas are mainly distributed in the southeast of the basin,and the areas are scattered in the edge of the study area.Compared with 2020,the level of landscape disturbance in the above four scenarios has increased significantly.From 2000 to 2020,the landscape vulnerability value of the Min River Basin increased first and then decreased,with an inverted "U" shape.In the past 20 years,the Min River Basin has declined by 5.41%,the anti-interference ability of the ecosystem has been improved,and the ecological environment has become more stable.From the perspective of spatial scale,the Min River Basin from 2000 to 2020 presented a spatial distribution pattern of "low in the south and high in the north".In 2030,the landscape vulnerability of the watershed under the five SSPs scenarios presented an arrangement of“SSP2)SSP3>SSP1>SSP5>SSP4".In 2030,the spatial pattern of landscape vulnerability of the five scenarios in the Min River Basin is roughly the same,showing the characteristics of "low in the north and high in the south".The low-level landscape vulnerability is mainly concentrated in the eastern part of the study area.At this time,the low-level landscape vulnerability area in the study area is mainly distributed in strips from west to east.(3)From 2000 to 2020,the landscape ecological risk in Min River Basin gradually decreased,and the mean value of landscape ecological risk decreased by 13.33%in 20 years,and the possibility of ecosystem risk decreased.From 2000 to 2020,the spatial distribution pattern of landscape ecological risk in Min River Basin showed the characteristics of "low in the north and high in the south".From 2020 to 2030,landscape ecological risk in Min River Basin intensified,and the mean value of ecological risk in each scenario presented "SSP5>SSP2≥SSP3>SSP4≥SSP".The spatial distribution of landscape ecological risk under five SSPs scenarios in Min River Basin in 2030 presented a spatial distribution pattern of "low in the north and high in the south".The southern part of the study area,especially the southeast part of the study area,became the gathering place of landscape highest and higher risk areas.