China's Water Demand Forecast By 2030

Water,food,oil are the three major strategic resources in our country.However,in the past,we didn't have enough awareness of its importance and we didn't pay more attention to its protection in the economic development,eventually led to water shortage and obvious contradiction between supply and demand.The specific performance in China's per capita water resources is only 2074 m~3,less than one third of global per capita value,Two-thirds of the country's cities are short of water.Water consumption in six provinces exceeds the amount of resources.On the other hand,it has been ten years since the three reports 2001 Data Report Set,2010 Strategic Research and 2010 Planning were released by China,and the water resources planning used to guide China in the next ten years lacks the necessary timeliness.In this context,the medium and long term prediction of water resource consumption demand is of great practical significance to the macroscopic allocation of water resources and the formulation of the long-term planning of regional economic development.On the basis of summarizing the law,the paper forecasted the water use of agriculture,industry,life and ecology in the next ten years and briefly analyzed the supply and demand situation of China in the future.The rule in the exploration,this research has collected more than20 countries long scale,variety of water resources,weather,hydrology,agriculture,land,population and economic data,analyzed the reason these countries the historical changes of the consumption of water resources in different department,study the coupling between its and their influencing factors of initial regular rules are set out below:(1)There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the water consumption of agriculture,industry and household sectors and economic development.(2)The output value of unit industrial water use and per capita GDP showed an L-shaped trend;(3)The peak value of agricultural and industrial water use is between $10,000-15,000 and $15,000-20,000,respectively.(4)The peak of domestic water consumption occurs on 70% to 80% of the urbanization rate;(5)The change of agricultural water consumption is mainly caused by the adjustment of planting structure,the change of irrigation mode,the adjustment of tillage mode and the formulation of national policy.In forecast,the water law of reference summary,at the same time,according to our country's basic national conditions,the important strategic planning,policy and other scientific research institutions and scholars research achievements of the future of our country water for scenario analysis to achieve overall grasp of demand trends,using the grey system model,quota method,analogy analysis,regression analysis method to forecast and actual data constraints.Finally,the total water consumption,agricultural water consumption,industrial water consumption,domestic water consumption and ecological water consumption in 2030 are 655.7 billion m~3,361.4 billion m~3,108.1 billion m~3,116.2 billion m~3 and 70 billion m~3,respectively.The preliminary conclusion is that the water shortage situation in Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shandong,Henan,Gansu and other traditional water shortage areas has a further deepening trend.Finally,based on the above results,the paper puts forward some suggestions,such as establishing the sustainable utilization model of groundwater resources combining ecological reconstruction and economic development,strengthening publicity and protection awareness of groundwater resources,carrying out research on rational allocation of water resources,analyzing the evolution law of water resources,and strengthening demand management.