Research On Demand Forecasting Of Regional Express Delivery

With the rapid spread of the network platform economy and the continuous improvement of people's wellbeing,the express delivery industry has gradually become an emerging industry that is increasingly indispensable for residents' lives.Besides,it is also a necessity for the further development of the manufacturing and service industries.Therefore,it is of great significance to improve express delivery service in regions,lower the cost of logistics industry and ensure the sustainable development of the regions through effective and reasonable predications on methods which accommodate to the needs and development rules of express delivery industry as well as analyses on the development trend of the express delivery in the regions.Based on the researches,references and literature reviews of related theoretical knowledge and articles of express delivery industry demands at home and abroad,the process and factors that influence express delivery demands in the regions were applied in this paper and various mathematical model were used to predict the short-term and long-term demands of express delivery.Following work has been done in this paper:(1)The domestic and foreign literature reviews were organized and researched and the demands for the express delivery were combined with the size of the population and the definition of "regional express delivery" was proposed.The express delivery demand per person was set as the research object,which is conducive to the evaluation and estimation of the number of packages in different regions.(2)The packages through consumption was taken.as an example,combining China's current express delivery industry situation to make a research on the generation process of package demands.The generation process of consumption demands in the regions,consumers' psychological activities when shopping online and external environmental stimulation were also analyzed in the paper to propose the generation structure of packages through consumption and the features of express delivery demands.(3)In terms of the package demands per person in the region,the factors and indicators that are in high correlation with package demands were selected.The grey correlation model was used to analyze the degree of correlation between various indicators and package demands.The package demand index system was also established.(4)The growth curve theory with the growth trend and growth law of express delivery were combined,the calculation method of the term node of the express growth curve stage is proposed.(5)The regional express delivery demands were divided into short-term and long-term according to the forecast time periods.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of express delivery demand,the gray system GM series model,BP neural network model and multiple regression analysis model are used to predict the short-term demand of express delivery from different perspectives;the growth curve theory is combined with the growth trend and growth regulations of express delivery.The growth curve Logistic function model is used to predict the long-term demand of express delivery,and the calculation method of the growth time node is proposed,which is conducive to the judgment of the growth stage of express delivery demand.A systematic and effective forecasting method for regional express delivery demands was also provided in this paper.(6)Based on the applied research of express delivery per person in Beijing,the theoretical models were applied into the real predications and the functions of various predicated models were analyzed to draw the conclusions.The growth curve image of express delivery demands in Beijing was also mapped out.Reliable references for the government were proposed in the paper so as to make express delivery plans for the city and the strategic development of express delivery enterprises.