Research On Risk Assessment Of High Temperature Heat Waves In The Source Area Of ??the “Belt And Road” Initiative

Under the trend of global warming,the frequency of heat waves is increasing all over the world.Systematic research on heat wave disasters has become a hot issue for scholars at home and abroad.At present,most researches on heat waves focus on the causes,spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and the impact on human health.There are few studies on the risk assessment of heat wave disasters.“The Belt and Road” source area refers to the area where the ancient Silk Road and the ancient tea-horse road originated,including Xinjiang,Qinghai,Gansu,Ningxia,Shaanxi,Sichuan,Chongqing,Yunnan,and Guangxi,which is an important part of China's foreign economic development.However,the frequent occurrence of heat wave in the study area has brought about a series of losses.The study on heat wave risk disasters of the study area has atheoretical and practical significance.This paper selects the daily maximum temperature and daily relative humidity data of 240 weather stations in “the Belt and Road” source area from 1963 to 2017 to calculate the heat wave index and analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the high temperature heat wave in the study area for 55 years.It selects meteorological data and socio-economic data to form an exposure,vulnerability and adaptive evaluation index system for high-temperature heat wave risk assessment.It uses the the Entropy Weight Method and improved Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)to calculate the closeness of exposure,vulnerability and adaptability of high temperature heat wave disaster risk.It comprehensively analyzes the risk level and spatial distribution of high temperature heat wave in the study area through systematic clustering method.It synthesizes and analyzes the circulation situation of regional high-temperature heat wave process,and obtains the prediction conceptual model of high-temperature heat wave weather.The research results of this paper are mainly as follows:(1)The number of heat wave days and the longest continuous days in the study area generally decreased first and then increased with time;in spatial distribution,large-value areas were located in plains and basins.(2)Cities with high levels of disaster exposure include cities with lower altitudes such as Guangxi,Chongqing,eastern Sichuan,and Xinjiang;cities with low levels of disaster exposure include cities with high altitudes such as Qinghai,western Sichuan,and northern Yunnan.Chongqing,eastern Sichuan,Xi'an,Xianyang and Weinan in Shaanxi are in areas with high sensitivity to heat wave disasters.Xinjiang,Gansu,Qinghai,western Sichuan,Yunnan and Guangxi are in areas with low sensitivity to heat wave disasters.Xi'an,Chengdu,Xianyang,Kunmi ng,etc.are in areas with high adaptability to heat wave disasters,and Xinjiang,Qinghai and western Sichuan are in areas with low disaster adaptability.(3)There are 37 cities with heat wave risk in the study area,accounting for 35.9%,most of which are in the eastern part of the study area and central Xinjiang.There are 69 cities with low heat waves,most of which are near the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.(4)The conceptual model for forecasting heat wave weather in the study area is: South China high pressure eastward at 100 hPa altitude,500 hPa height,high altitude and its surrounding areas controlled by continental high pressure,and circulation in middle and high latitudes showing two troughs and one ridge;or western Pacific The subtropical high is westward in the Sichuan Basin and even west.There is a trough in northern Japan,and the ridge is located near the Kamchatka Peninsula.