The Scenarios Simulation Of Future Urban Land Expansion In Dalian Main Urban Region

With the rapid development of urbanization,the expansion of urban land in the future will become one of the dominant features of land use change.In order to effectively promote the healthy development of cities,it is necessary to rationally deploy land use.As a fast-developing city,Dalian In recent decades,the land use structure has undergone great changes.In this paper,the main urban area of Dalian is selected as the research scope,and the land use evolution characteristics of the study area in the past 23 years are analyzed.It also simulated the future urban land expansion in urban areas through the ANN-CA model.The main research contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Combined with historical remote sensing images,we interpreted the six periods of historical land use data in 1995,2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2018 in the main urban area,and analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the land structure through the transfer matrix.The land use changed significantly during the past 23 years,the overall trend of "one increase and three reductions" showed that the urban industrial and mining construction land area increased by 11.57%,the area of cultivated land and gardens,protective ecological forest land,ocean and land water bodies decreased by 4.28%,4.21%,3.06%,respectively Among them,the constituent parts of urban industrial and mining construction land area are mainly cultivated land and gardens> ocean and land water>protective ecological forest land.The protective ecological forest land was mainly transferred to cultivated land and garden land,while the cultivated land and garden land,ocean and land water body were mainly transferred to urban industrial and mining construction land.(2)From the year 1995 to 2018,the overall trend of urban land expansion in the main urban area was "ascent-decline-reasension-decline".All indexes reached the highest during the rapid expansion between 2000 and 2005,During the two periods of 1995-2000 and2010-2015,the urban land use expanded rapidly due to government factors,but the rate of urban expansion slowed down after 2015.Overall,the space evolution trend of the urban land use in the main urban was mainly expansion to the Ganjingzi District in the northeast and the Lvshunkou District in the southwest,which can be concluded as "Westward Extension and Northward Advancement".(3)The ANN-CA model was adopted by selecting seven spatial variable factors to simulate and predict the changes in urban land use in the study area.Scenarios which was based on the simulation accuracy greater than 90% simulation was conducted on the future urban land use expansion in the study area.The simulation results shows that the minimum range of urban land in the main city area will be 52870hm2 in 2049,the most likely range will be 57659hm2,and the maximum range will reach 61896hm2.The expansion characteristics are mainly concluded as a large expansion to the surrounding and an appropriate extension to the sea on the basis of the original urban land.The performances around the Dalian Bay area and the Lvshunkou area in the west will be particularly obvious.The result has achieved the expected effect,which is in line with the future development trend of the city.This paper systematically analyzed the characteristics of historical land use changes in the main urban area of Dalian,which would help to accurately grasp the overall trend of land use changes in the study area over the past 23 years,and successfully uses the ANN-CA model to simulate the future urban land expansion in the main urban area.It solved some key technologies,enriched the case study of the model,and has certain reference value for the future city planning of Dalian.