| Changes of land-use/land-cover plays an important role in regional development and global climate change.Research on the interaction between the natural environment,human activities and land-use is of great significance for the maintenance of human welfare.Cellular automata,characterized by discrete space-time and discrete state,is a dynamic modeling framework of "top-down".It has a strong capability to simulate the dynamic evolution of complex space systems,and is the main model for simulating land-use change at present.The geographical location of Nanning is very special.Nanning is not only the capital city of Guangxi Province and one of the core city of Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,but also a regional international city for the ASEAN countries.In recent years,Nanning obtained a considerable development in both social and economic aspects.The scale of city expanded rapidly,and the urbanization process is accelerating.Thus,constructing a model that simulate the change of land-use in Nanning and forecast the trend of land-use in future,can surely provide the basis for future policy making on future land planning and land management.According to the research needs,the paper selects the 2000,2008 and 2016 TM/ETM+remote-sensing images to interpret the land-using status of core city of Nanning.And then the paper analyses the changes of land-using structure,which include terrain slope,cross channel road,city group center and etc,and the driving factors of these changes.The data of land-using status and driving factors are preprocessed with the ANN-CA model and GIS Spatial Analysis technique.The transformation rules of the cellular automata are obtained by the artificial neural network training.We used the ANN-CA model to simulate the land-use situation of the study area in 2016 and compared it with actual situation and then adjust the parameter of cellular automata on the basis of the differences.After that,the adjusted model would be used to predict the change of land-use status of the core district of Nanning in 2024.The study has made the following conclusions and understandings:(1)Under the background of rapid urbanization,the urban land expansion in central Nanning is rapid and the land use change is fierce.In the past 2000-2016 years,the area of construction land in Nanning grew fast,meanwhile,the area of agricultural land and woodland is decreasing continuously,which are the main sources of agricultural and forestry production.In addition,the land use conversion between agricultural land and woods land is oftenoccurring.(2)The agricultural land,construction land and water area in the downtown area of Nanning are mainly concentrated in the relatively gentle slope of the terrain,and the woodland is mainly distributed in the steep terrain slope;The road traffic factors,river factors and the heart of the group,which are strongly influenced by human activities,are proved to be spatial attractions for construction land and rejections for other types of land-use.The study shows that the driving factors behind are inversely proportional to the distance.(3)According to the prediction provided by ANN-CA model,the area of future construction land continues to increase,the area of agricultural land and woodland will continuously decreasing,and the main direction of agricultural land transfer is construction land.From the perspective of space,it is predicted that the land use of the central urban area of Nanning in 2024 is basically consistent with the overall planning of Nanning city,which highlights the development model of "the whole to the East,the focus to the South" and the "one axis and two belts and many centers".(4)To simulate the change trend of urban land use in the background of rapid urbanization,it is more effective and more accurate to simulate the future land use change in the research area by adding the urban planning land scale into the ANN-CA model rules. |
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