Study On Land Use/Cover Change And Its Scenarios Simulation In The Southern Mountainous Areas Of Jinan

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important cause of global environmental change,LUCC research related to land use change is always the focus of research. Spatial analysis ofland use/cover distribution and development trends play an irreplaceable role in the studies, thesame as promoting the rational use of regional land resources and the application of thesimplified model for the interpretation of land use change processes and mechanisms.Jinan is located in the north wing of the southern mountain Taishan anticline, whose role isto conserve groundwater of Jinan Springs. Moreover, it maintains the metabolism of urbanatmospheric environment to ensure ecological safety of Jinan City. With the continuousurbanization process, the environment in the southern mountainous areas suffered seriousdamage, such us serious soil erosion, pollution, loss of biodiversity, distribution, bare rock intopieces and springexhausted. Therefore, in order to protect and improve the ecologicalenvironment of the southern mountainous areas, a long sequence of multi-stage remote sensingdata of the southern mountainous areas was used to research the land use/cover change.The main contents are as follows:(1) Monitoring of the land use/cover change of the southern mountainous areas of Jinan.Take advantage of remote sensing images in1987,2000,2005,2010and2012as the main datasource for remote sensing image classification processing. Supported by the interpretation signsand supervised classification approach, land use types are divided into six classes based on"land use classification" system published in2007.(2) Analysis of the land use/cover change in the southern mountainous areas. Landuse/cover change situation and its driving forces in Southern Mountainous Areas of Jinan wereinvestigated by support of ERDAS and ArcGIS. The land resource quantity change model andthe land utilization transfer matrix were used to study the land use tendency and driving forcesof LUCC in1987-2012. The result indicated that cultivated land, grassland and woodlandalways accounted for the largest areal proportion in the past three decades. On the whole, thearea of the grassland, water land and construction land has presented a growth tendency, whilethe cultivated land, woodland and other land had an opposite tendency. The change of landuse/cover types are obvious at different stages from1987to2012in the Southern MountainousAreas.(3) Simulation and predictions of the land use/cover change in the southern mountainous areas. An extended artificial neural network based on cellular automata model (ANN-CA) inmodeling urban land use changes was used in the study, and natural resources, climate andhumanity aspects were considered synthetically to train the neural network and calibrate themodel. In addition, the similarities and differences of the land use/cover change in threesituations are also analyzed. The model has a certain accuracy in the simulation of complexdynamic change of land use in the process, and it can provide guidance on the sustainable use ofland resources planning. The research result can provide scientific basis for the sustainabledevelopment of the southern mountainous areas of Jinan.