Increasing combat capability through enhancing the responsiveness of wartime ammunition logistics: Measurement methodology, case studies, and policy implications

While it has been long understood qualitatively that logistics responsiveness affects combat capability, this dissertation advances the thesis that increased responsiveness in wartime theater ammunition distribution, provided through improved physical resources or logistics management, can substantially and quantifiably increase combat capability. To prove that thesis, knowledge-based simulation tools recently developed by artificial intelligence research are employed to support case studies of several logistics innovations currently under consideration by senior policy-makers.; Ammunition logistics is an important military domain because successful combat operations require an adequate supply of ammunition. As war has become more dynamic and battlefields less well defined in terms of forward and rear, implementing innovations that could increase the responsiveness of the Army's multi-billion dollar wartime theater ammunition distribution system (WTADS) has been repeatedly recognized as one way to increase the combat capability of supported forces. In a period of constrained defense budgets, the fundamental policy problem is to select the most cost-effective innovations.; This dissertation discusses motivations for changing the WTADS, and next describes possible innovations including changes to the ammunition production base and peacetime stockpile, storage and transportation assets, management assets, and doctrine and standard operating procedures. The dissertation then describes an evaluation methodology, developed using knowledge-based simulation tools, applicable to many of those innovations. Several novel attributes of this methodology help relate logistics responsiveness to combat outcomes: (a) Planned consumption of ammunition is based upon a planned sequence of combat unit postures generated by markov process, and actual postures fought and ammunition consumed may randomly deviate from plans. This introduces variability and uncertainty into the system's operation. (b) Logistics management, as performed by material management centers, movement control centers, and other organizations, is explicitly modeled. (c) Multiple measures of WTADS performance are available, including expected kills of enemy weapon systems. The methodology is demonstrated through case studies in three areas: use of the palletized load system truck; highly responsive logistics for high-lethality low-tonnage ammunition types; and the maneuver-oriented ammunition distribution system. The concrete impact of logistics responsiveness upon combat capability is repeatedly shown.