| About half of the global wetlands are located between 50-70° N, where climate change is projected to be greater than other regions. More than 95% of northern wetlands are peatlands. The majority of peatlands accumulate soil carbon (C) because, on average, net primary production (NPP) exceeds decomposition. Peatlands store ∼450 G t soil carbon (1Gt C=1015 g C), a mass equivalent to about 20% of global terrestrial soil C, or half of atmospheric C. The carbon exchange between peatlands and the atmosphere is sensitive to climate variability and change because of the tight coupling with hydrology and ecosystem biogeochemistry. A critical question of this thesis is “Will northern peatlands continue to function as C sink under the projected climate change?”;I use a modelling approach to answer this question. Firstly, a peatland C cycling model, the McGill Wetland Model (MWM), originally developed to simulate the C dynamics of ombrotrophic bogs, was modified, parameterized and evaluated for the simulation of the CO2 biogeochemistry of fens. Three modifications were made: (1) a function describing the impact of soil moisture on the optimal gross primary production (GPP); (2) a scheme to partition the peat profile into oxic and anoxic C compartments based on the effective root depth as a function of daily sedge NPP; and (3) a modified function describing the fen moss water dynamics. Secondly, I have examined the effect of bog microtopography on the simulation of ecosystem-level C cycling and found model processes scale linearly, so “parameter” upscaling can be used in regional scale assessments. Thirdly, I successfully evaluated a coupled Wetland version of Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS3W) and MWM (called CLASS3W-MWM) for bogs and fens. The sensitivity analysis indicates that northern peatlands are thermally and hydrologically conservative and the combination of changes in temperature, precipitation and double CO2 concentration is much different than the sensitivity of peatlands to each environmental variable on their own. Finally, I used CLASS3W-MWM to do a first-order experiment on how the CO 2 exchange in northern peatlands might change under the changing climate. For future climate, I adjusted the site “measured” climate variables by the climate anomalies estimated by the CCCma-GCM3.0 for three time slices (2030, 2060 and 2100) using four different climate scenarios (A1B, A2, B1 and Commit). These simulations showed that bogs and fens have significantly different responses to climate change, particularly that fens are more sensitive to environmental change than bogs. At 2100, the bog remains a C sink for all the climate scenarios assessed because a significant increase in GPP still offset, to a smaller extent, the large increase in total ecosystem respiration (TER). However, by 2100, the fen switches to a C source for two scenarios (A1B and A2), due to a dramatic decrease in GPP and a significant increase in TER resulting from water stress linked to a large drop of water table depth. |
