Modeling permafrost stability in peatlands with climate change and disturbance

Boreal and arctic regions are predicted to warm faster and more severely than temperate latitudes. They contain large stocks of below- ground soil carbon in peatlands and frozen soil, and the flux of the soil C to the atmosphere may be a strong feedback to climate change.;I compared the effects of climate change and wildfire on permafrost in peatlands using a soil thermal model. The model simulates soil temperatures and active layer thickness. I evaluated the model at a sedge-dominated Candadian arctic fen. I estimated the sensitivity of permafrost to current temperatures, future temperature projections, and wildfire.;Increases in air temperature due to climate change will increase surface soil temperatures, soil temperatures at depth, active layer depths, and growing season length, but not degrade permafrost by 2100 at this site. Both wildfire and climate change increase active layer depths by 25 cm, but effects of wildfire diminish following vegetation recovery.