Study On The Characteristics And Impact Factors Of Climate Change In Northern Xinjiang In Recent 56years

The frequent occurrence of natural disasters in China not only causes huge economic losses every year,but also poses a serious threat to human production and life.Among them,meteorological disasters,especially droughts and floods,are particularly serious,and the scope is wide and the impact is deep.The economic losses caused by droughts and floods in China account for over 50% of all natural disasters,ranking first in meteorological disasters.This paper selects the northern part of Xinjiang,using its 56 meteorological stations to measure the temperature and precipitation of daily temperature,using applying the methods like linear trend analysis,MK abrupt change test,drought and flood grade Z index,etc.,revealing to reveal the characteristics of climate change and the evolution of drought and flood in northern Xinjiang.and thus the possible influence factors of this change.It provides a certain theoretical basis and basis rationale for the agriculture development,animal husbandry and disaster prevention in northern Xinjiang.The main findings of this paper are as follows:(1)The climate in the northern part of Xinjiang in the past 56 years is generally warm and humid with increasing temperature and precipitation.The spatial distribution of temperature is low in the middle,low in the middle,low in the mountainous area,and high in the plain basin,with obvious spatial difference in the temperature increase.The warming magnitude of the eastern part of Altay and the northwestern part of Tacheng is the most significant.The spatial distribution of precipitation is extremely uneven,and with more in southwest than in the central part.The precipitation changes showed an increasing trend,and the significantly increased areas were concentrated in the Altai Mountains and the Tianshan Mountains.(2)The general trend of drought and floodlogging in the northern part in the past56 years is to change from drought to flood,and the change level is consistent with the climate change trend in northern Xinjiang.The spatial distribution of drought and flood levels is that drought disasters are mainly concentrated in the northern and southwestern parts of the Altay region;floods occur in the northern Altay site,the northwest Tacheng,the Emin area,the western Zhaosu area,the southern Hutubi area.Xiaoquzi,Dabancheng area.The overall rate of drought and flood tends to change from drought to flood disaster,and the trend of drought and flood tends to decrease from southwest to southeast.(3)The relationship between the near-56 a Arctic Oscillation(AO Index)and theclimate in northern Xinjiang is mainly reflected by the positive correlation between winter temperature and AO index,and the correlation coefficient is 0.306*.The spatial AO index is positively correlated with the temperature of most stations.And the higher the latitude,the stronger the correlation.Precipitation has little correlation with AO index,and the correlation between each site and AO index is also poor.The relationship between climate change,drought and flood disasters and ENSO events in northern Xinjiang shows that the ENSO event has a certain impact on temperature.The annual average temperature in the northern Xinjiang region is high in the ENSO warm event year;the temperature is low in the cold event year.The impact of ENSO events on precipitation is reflected in the occurrence of ENSO events that reduce precipitation in northern Xinjiang,and the occurrence of cold events has led to more precipitation reduction.The flood season in the northern Xinjiang and the general trend of ENSO events are the flood seasons in which the ENSO event intensity is enhanced.The weakened years are drought disasters,that is,the annual warm events are prone to drought disasters,and the cold events are prone to flood disasters.The effect of sunspots on the drought and flood index in northern Xinjiang is generally negatively correlated.That is,the larger the relative number of sunspots,the smaller the Z index,and the greater the possibility of drought,and vice versa.The regional drought and flood level is positively correlated with sunspot activity,that is,the greater the relative number of sunspots,the higher the level of drought and flood,the greater the degree of drought,and vice versa.The relationship between the drought and flood years and the sunspot phase is that the relationship between the drought and flood years in northern Xinjiang and the peak sunspot activity is not significant,but it is significantly related to the year near the peak of sunspot activity.