| The industrial structure evolution and economic growth of a country or region are mutually influential and restrictive.The optimization of industrial structure can not only reflect the level and characteristics of economic development,but also affect the speed and direction of economic development.As a booster of the rapid economic growth of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos region has very favorable development conditions in terms of natural resources,location advantages and the development of special industries,as of the end of 2018,the total GDP exceeded one trillion,accounting for 67.05%of the region's total GDP.However,while the economy continues to grow,it will require corresponding adjustment,optimization,and upgrading of the industrial structure to adapt to it.A reasonable industrial structure can promote economic development,and conversely hinder economic development.Therefore,it is of great significance to deeply understand the interaction mechanism between the evolution of industrial structure and economic growth in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos region.This article takes Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos region as a research area,based on the theory of industrial structure,economic growth theory,the theory of the interactive relationship between industrial structure and economic growth and its spatial organization theory.By calculating the indexes of industrial structure deviation and deviation coefficient,industrial structure adjustment speed,Theil index and the Sear coefficient from 1978 to 2017,combined with the deviation share analysis method,the characteristics of industrial structure evolution and the laws of economic growth are analyzed.On this basis,using ArcGIS and GeoDa software combined with Granger causality test,gray correlation and exploratory spatial data analysis to explore the interaction law and influence mechanism between the industrial structure evolution and economic growth in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos region.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From the point of view of the evolution of industrial structure,the current status of most Qixian(district)industrial structures is dominated by secondary industries,and the proportion of tertiary industries in urban areas has grown rapidly.Most of the Qixian(district)industrial structure entropy values are concentrated between 0.6-1.1,the industrial structure similarity index is above 0.8,and the industrial structure evolution is proceeding in an increasingly orderly direction;The degree of deviation of the employment industrial structure and the deviation coefficient value are relatively small,and the direction of the evolution of the employment structure and the industrial structure is consistent;The industrial structure conversion rate coefficient of Tumotuo Zuoqi is as high as 0.26,and Yijinhuoluo Banner is as low as 0.08,there are regional differences;Most flag counties(districts)are changing from traditional industrialization to modern industrialization,and the industrial structure is changing from low-level to high-level;The industrial structure adjustment of each county(district)accelerates first and then decelerates,and the internal differences in industrial structure adjustment are large.In recent years,the effect of industrial structure has improved,and the competitiveness has been strengthened.The economic growth of the city is mainly driven by the tertiary industry.The suburban county is still dominated by the secondary industry,and the industrial structure needs to be further optimized and adjusted;the interaction intensity of the various counties(districts)is weak,showing an obvious spatial pattern of clustering and significant spatial differentiation characteristics.The economic links between the dominant industries are uneven and the ranks are obvious.From the perspective of the rationality of the three industrial structures,the internal differences are relatively large.The Qingshan District,Dongsheng District,and Huimin District Theil index approaches 0 and the municipal industrial structure tend to be rationalized.(2)Judging from the current economic growth situation,the economic differences among the counties(districts)in 2000-2017 have expanded,and the total coefficient of the Shill has increased from 0.0349to 0.0438;the difference in the county's economic range has increased from 0.0040 to 0.0126;the differences in the region tend to be balanced overall.From the perspective of spatial differentiation,the economic development level of various counties(districts)tends to be spatially agglomerated,and has maintained an agglomeration trend in recent years;The classification of all Qi Xian counties(districts)reveals that the characteristics of“Northeast-Southwest”differentiation,low-value agglomeration and high-value dispersion tend to be obvious;In a typical~“dual-core”form,the overall economic development scores of Kundulun District and Dongsheng District are 1.28 and 1.10;The economic development level of developed and relatively developed counties and surrounding counties is in the form of“abrupt”space,lacking intermediate-level county transitional layers;The spatial distribution of the county's economic level changed from scattered to agglomerate.From the perspective of time series,the standard deviation of GDP per capita in each county(district)increased from 3726 to 85764 from 2000 to 2017,and the absolute gap in the county economy showed an increasing trend;the changes in the level of economic development fluctuated significantly and were relatively stable locally;the polarization effect was enhanced.(3)From the analysis of the interaction mechanism between industrial structure evolution and economic growth,Granger causality test found that within 95%confidence interval,there is no significant difference between the industrial structure evolution and economic growth of 19 flag counties(districts).Direct or bidirectional causality;Six QiXian counties(districts)showed a one-way causality;Dongsheng District showed a two-way causality.It can be obtained by calculating the grey correlation degree and sorting that 73.08%of Qi County(district)primary industry structure development status has a strong correlation with economic growth;19.23%of Qi County(district)secondary industry structure development status is strongly related to economic development,and they are all located in Baotou City;7.69%of Qi County(district)tertiary industry structure development status is weakly correlated with economic growth,including Huimin District and Jungar Banner.According to the calculation of Moran's I index,there is a clear positive correlation between the evolution of industrial structure and economic growth in all the counties(districts)in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos region,and the agglomeration characteristics of the correlation degree in local space are more obvious,however,the number of insignificant regions accounts for 73.08%,and there is no obvious spatial binary structure,nor does it reflect the greater spatial differentiation.Through the above research and analysis,the interaction mechanism of industrial structure evolution and economic growth in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos region includes:original mechanism,guiding mechanism,optimization mechanism and innovation mechanism. |
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