| In August 2017,the U.S.authorized trade representative conducted a "301 investigation" on China,and this investigation became the beginning of Sino-US trade friction.Since then,China and the United States have launched multiple rounds of trade wars.The United States has officially imposed tariff sanctions on China on the grounds of reducing the trade deficit.In order to safeguard China’s trade interests,China has adopted a counterattack method every time,and similarly imposed import tariffs on American products.Trade frictions gradually escalated after the two parties imposed tariffs on each other.In the Sino-US trade dispute,"agricultural products" have become China’s "important weapon" to suppress the United States.In June 2018,China imposed a 25% import tariff on US $50 billion in products.In August 2019,China once again imposed 5% and 10% import tariffs on US $75 billion in imported products.The two tariff increases involved many agricultural sectors,and the development of China’s agricultural trade will be greatly affected in this round of trade war.Does the Sino-US trade friction bring opportunities or challenges to the domestic agricultural sector? What measures should China take to deal with the negative impact of domestic agricultural products? These unknown problems need to be solved urgently.This article first grasps the current status and characteristics of agricultural trade development between the two countries based on the current status of Sino-US trade.Second,it analyzes theoretically the impact of trade friction on agricultural development and countermeasures.Finally,from the perspective of agricultural impact and policy recommendations,empirical research using GTAP model.In terms of empirical research,this article makes agricultural tax rate shocks based on the actual tariff increase in the process of trade frictions,simulates and analyzes the impact of trade frictions on China’s agricultural trade,and further simulates the policy effects of increasing agricultural producer subsidies and reducing agricultural import taxes in other countries.Through empirical research,this article draws the following conclusions: first,the Sino-US trade friction has the largest impact on oil crops sector;second,it is difficult to mitigate the negative impact of Sino-US trade friction in the long run;third,in the short term,in order to reduce the negative impact of domestic agriculture,we can reduce other countries’ import tax;fourth,in the long run,domestic use of increased agricultural production subsidies can reduce the negative impact of Sino-US trade frictions.Based on the theoretical and empirical research results,this article puts forward short-term trade friction cracking countermeasures and relevant suggestions for China’s agricultural sustainable development in the long term.In the short-term strategy,adopt diversified channels to fill the gaps in agricultural products and appropriately reduce the import tariffs of other countries to develop markets for agricultural import sources;implementing the strategy of "village revitalization",increasing agricultural production subsidies and encouraging agriculture to "go global" and other methods to reduce the negative impact of trade frictions. |
