Research On The Influence Of Sino-US Trade Friction On China’s Export Trade

After the normalization of relations between China and the United States in 1979,bilateral trade between the two countries has developed rapidly.Competition and cooperation have always been the theme of trade development.In 2018,the Trump administration launched a trade war against China in various areas based on the results of the Section 301 Investigation,and competition replaced cooperation as a new trend in bilateral trade.After Biden was elected president of the United States,he continued some tough trade policies against China and regarded China as the United States’ "biggest competitor".There are great uncertainties in Sino-US economic and trade relations.China is in a stage of high-quality economic development,and the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions and the spread of COVID-19 have intensified economic counter-globalization.Facing the severe trade environment,it is of practical significance to analyze the impact of Sino-US trade frictions on China’s export trade.This thesis adopts qualitative and quantitative methods to analyze the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s export trade.In terms of qualitative analysis,this thesis reviews the previous literatures,and theoretically analyzes the impact of trade friction on export trade from two perspectives of tariff barrier and non-tariff barrier.By sorting out the history of trade frictions between China and the United States,sorting out relevant facts about trade frictions,and exploring the historical origin of trade frictions.Based on the current situation of China’s export trade scale and structure to the United States,the similarity and competitiveness of the two countries’ export trade are analyzed.In terms of quantitative analysis,this thesis adopts the effective applicable weighted average tariff and the number of technical barriers to trade imposed by the United States on China as variables of trade friction,carries out empirical analysis from two aspects of trade scale and trade structure,and draws the following conclusions:China’s export trade has been negatively impacted by US tariffs and technical trade barriers,and technical trade barriers have a lag effect,and the deepening of trade friction hinders the development of China’s export trade to the United States.Secondly,in terms of trade structure,from the perspective of technology intensity,trade friction has a significantly greater hindrance effect on China’s export to the US in low and medium technology industries than in high technology industries.From the point of view of the end use of products,the trade friction has a greater trade barrier effect on investment goods than consumer goods,and the trade barrier effect on industrial finished goods is greater than primary products.Based on the research results of this thesis,the following policy recommendations are put forward: China should strategically respond to trade challenges;Expand international market and disperse tariff risk;Improve the ability of scientific and technological innovation,alleviate the pressure of technical trade barriers;Change enterprise development idea,make flexible export strategy.