Research On Economic Effect Measurement Of Sino-US Trade Friction

China and the United States have frequent economic and trade exchanges and close economic ties.The economic and trade relations between the two countries are one of the most important bilateral economic and trade relations in the world,and they also occupy a very important position in Sino-US relations.However,as Sino-US economic and trade relations develop rapidly and interests are constantly intertwined,bilateral economic and trade frictions are also increasing,becoming an important factor that interferes with the further development of Sino-US economic and trade relations.In 2017,since President Trump took office,the trend of US trade protectionism has obviously increased.The trade friction between China and the United States has continued to escalate.The United States and China,as the world’s traditional hegemons,may fall into a "Thucydide trap" trade war.However,China is currently in a critical period of economic growth shifts and economic growth mode switching.The external environmental changes in economic development are crucial to the successful transformation of the Chinese economy.Therefore,in the face of the escalating Sino-US trade friction,it is necessary to use the trade friction theory to conduct in-depth research on Sino-US trade issues,to study the economic effects of the escalation of Sino-US trade friction,and to provide ideas for China to deal with Sino-US trade frictions.It also provides strategic choices for the game between China and the United States.On the basis of reviewing trade friction theory and domestic and foreign scholars’ research on trade friction,this paper sorts out the economic effects of trade friction,the solution and the application of GTAP model,and builds from the influence of Sino-US trade friction and the solution.An analysis model of Sino-US trade issues.On this basis,from the characteristics of Sino-US trade,the performance and development trend of Sino-US trade friction upgrade at the present stage,summed up the development status of Sino-US trade relations,and then combined with trade friction theory and domestic and foreign research on trade friction,in-depth analysis of China and the United States.The impact of trade friction,and the US-implemented tariff policy for China and the future may be used as a policy simulation scenario.The GTAP model is used to simulate and analyze a series of economic effects of China-US trade friction escalation on China.According to theoretical research and simulation results.It proposes China’s response strategy to the current Sino-US trade dispute and the strategic choice of the future Sino-US game.The results show that:(1)Sino-US trade friction escalation will negatively affect China’s GDP growth rate,social welfare level and employment level,but China’s GDP growth rate,social welfare level and employment level are negative.The impact is greater than that of the United States;(2)With the expansion of the tariff range imposed by China and the United States and the increase in the proportion,in addition to agricultural products,the output of other industrial sectors in China will be negatively affected,and the output of some US industries will decline.Negative growth,China and the United States and other countries and regions of the world’s exports will also be hit to a certain extent,especially the US agricultural products,will suffer a greater impact;(3)Sino-US trade friction upgrade to China and the United States Both imports and exports have a large negative impact,but the negative impact of US imports and exports is greater than that of China;(4)China’s trade conditions are greater than the impact of the United States,and with the escalation of trade sanctions,the terms of trade will continue to deteriorate,The trade conditions of other countries and regions in the world will be improved,and the continuous escalation of trade friction will be detrimental to China’s medium and long-term economic development.