The Impact Of US-Sino Trade War On China Based On GTAP Model

After joining the world trade organization and therefore with the help of a good external economic development environment,China has made great efforts to carry out foreign trade and has achieved rapid economic growth and rapidly became a world trade and economic power.After the financial crisis in 2008,the road of world economic recovery was tortuous,and the trend of "reverse globalization" emerged in the Western world.Since President Trump took office,the trade protection tendency of the United States has become more and more obvious.The huge trade deficit has become the time bomb of Sino-US trade relations.At present,China is in the key period of the transformation of economic structure and development mode,and the economic connection with the world is even more close.The change of the external environment would have a great influence on the successful transformation of our country.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the impact of the US"steel 232" survey on China.Taking Sino US trade relations as the main research object,this thesis studies the influence of the "232" survey on China with 25%global tariffs on imported steel.First of all,the paper reviews the domestic and foreign literature on tariffs,free trade,trade protectionism and Sino US trade relations,and clarifies the mechanism that tariffs affect the world economy.Next,the paper analyzes the development status of Sino US trade relations,reviews the development process of Sino US trade relations,and points out the characteristics of Sino US trade relations.Finally,this paper uses the GTAP model to quantitatively simulate the impact of the American steel tariff impact on China.By comparing the 4 different simulation situations,this paper tries to give an effective strategy for China to deal with a trade war with US.According to the theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions:the unilateral action of the United States will have a negative impact on China's steel industry,trade conditions and social welfare,but it will also benefit the downstream industries,such as mechanical manufacturing,motor vehicle and automotive parts and so on.It should be alarmed that the unilateral action of the United States may be followed by other countries.And as a result,the "chain reaction"may lead the world into a total trade war.Facing American trade protectionism,trade retaliation is not the best choice.It should be remembered that trade revenge is only a bargaining chip.It would be better if China choose to speed up regional integration and improve the level of openness to hedge against the impact of protectionism of the United States.Therefore,it is suggested that China pay close attention to the changes in the international trade situation,strengthen the monitoring and control of external risk.It is suggested that China use the tools of trade retaliation carefully and cautiously,actively strive for a negotiated settlement and avoid the intensification of trade contradictions.It is suggested that China accelerate regional integration and improve the level of openness so that we can grasp the right to write the rule of international trade.