An Empirical Research On The Influencing Factors Of China’s Cross-Border E-commerce Export Trade

In recent years,one of the "one belt,one road" initiative has been put forward.In sharp contrast to the downturn of traditional foreign trade,the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce trade has gradually broken the traditional mode of China’s foreign trade and become a new force of China’s trade development.In 2018,the scale of cross-border e-commerce transactions in China was 9.1 trillion yuan,and even reached 10.8 trillion yuan in 2019.At the same time,the export volume of China’s cross-border e-commerce trade is much higher than the import volume.The absolute advantage of export trade determines the enthusiasm of China’s cross-border e-commerce trade development in the new era,especially the gradual implementation of e-commerce law and cross-border e-commerce and other new policies,which will make China’s Cross-border e-commerce market more standardized and create more favorable conditions for the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce.Based on this background,this paper focuses on the influencing factors of China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade,relies on the improved trade gravity model,and makes a deeper research on the development of China’s cross-border e-commerce trade and provides constructive suggestions.What are the influencing factors of China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade?Will these factors have a positive or negative impact on the development of cross-border e-commerce export trade?How to put forward more constructive opinions and suggestions according to different influencing factors,and how to make the original theoretical basis more innovative and breakthrough point become the key issues to be solved in this paper.In addition,this paper first summarizes the key concepts of cross-border e-commerce trade in China.With the rapid development of science and technology and economic level,the definition of cross-border e-commerce is also changing and extending.At present,foreign scholars usually regard cross-border e-commerce as a kind of transaction behavior in the era of information technology and big data,in which different countries or regions use the Internet as a representative platform to carry out trade,international payment,transportation and other forms of transaction.Domestic scholars believe that cross-border e-commerce is the development and extension of traditional e-commerce in payment,logistics,settlement and other aspects to adapt to international trade and global development.The research model used in this paper is the trade gravity model.At the same time,combined with the development of cross-border e-commerce in China,the trade gravity model is improved.In the improved trade gravity model,this paper adds market size,trade distance,consumption gap,population,Internet use and other factors to the formula of trade gravity model.In addition,this paper also selects the data of 10 countries(the United States,France,Russia,the United Kingdom,Brazil,Canada,Germany,Japan,South Korea,India)with higher cross-border e-commerce export volume of China for empirical analysis from 2013 to 2018.On the basis of the original achievements,combined with the development characteristics of China’s cross-border e-commerce trade,the expected influencing factors are obtained.That is to say,the market size of both sides of import and export is positively correlated with the export volume of cross-border e-commerce;the consumption gap is negatively correlated with the export volume of China’s cross-border e-commerce;the population size of import area is positively correlated with the export volume of cross-border e-commerce;the number of Internet users in import area is positively correlated with the export volume of cross-border e-commerce;the trade distance between both sides of trade is positively correlated with the export volume of cross-border e-commerce Negative correlation.After determining the trade gravity model and the expected results of the influencing factors,this paper focuses on collecting and summarizing the specific data of the target country’s per capital GDP,the absolute value of the difference between China’s per capital GDP(National Bureau of Statistics),the total population pop,the number of secure Internet servers(per million population)Inter,and the trade distance d with China.Through the multiple linear regression of the improved trade gravity model formula,this paper studies the influence of each variable variable(GDP per capital,GDP difference per capital,total population,number of Internet users,distance)on the dependent variable(export trade volume of cross-border e-commerce in China).The result of returning home is consistent with the expected result.In the five independent variables of the gravity model,the difference of GDP per capital(ln IT),trade The coefficients of easy distance(ln D)are negative,while the coefficients of the other three independent variables,per capital GDP ln GDP),population size(In POP),and Internet users(In Inter),are positive.The data results show that the coefficient of per capital GDP is positive and highly significant,indicating that the higher the per capital GDP of the importing country is,the greater the export volume of China’s cross-border e-commerce;the coefficient of per capital GDP is negative,indicating that the greater the difference between China and the importing country is,the smaller the export volume of China’s cross-border e-commerce;the coefficient of population scale is positive and highly significant,indicating the larger the population scale of the importing country is Large,the greater the export trade volume of cross-border e-commerce in China;the positive and highly significant coefficient of the number of Internet users indicates that the greater the number of secure Internet servers(per million population)in the importing country,the greater the export trade volume of cross-border e-commerce in China;the negative coefficient of trade distance indicates that the greater the trade distance between China and the importing country,the smaller the export trade volume of cross-border e-commerce in China.Although this paper has a detailed study on the influencing factors of China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade,whether it is the research background,research methods,literature references,or the construction of the model,it has certain innovative significance.However,as China’s cross-border e-commerce import and export trade is still in the development stage,the cross-border e-commerce market is far from mature,coupled with the instability of the international cross-border e-commerce market and the inconsistency of national policies,there are still some deficiencies in this paper.The main performance is that there may be some errors in the trade data of the major trading partner countries,and the model can not be modified to achieve the best and relevant results.Besides,the literature review is relatively limited.