Analysis On The Influencing Factors Of Guangdong's Export Trade

Throughout the past 30 years, China's economic development level and the value of export trade developed particularly rapidly after the reform and opening up, obviously,there is a certain correlation between exports and economic development, the increase in exports can effectively promote economic growth, To study the main factors influencing the export trade and to use these factors to establish the measurement model to analyze the different effects of various factors on the export trade has great significance on improving the export trade-related policies, ensuring the sustainable development of export trade, promoting the stable growth of the national economy and improving the economic strength of a country and international competitiveness.This paper first analyzes the current situation of Guangdong Province, on this basis,select the total imports, technology and R & D investment,foreign capital inflows,trade partners GDP,Guangdong Province's labor investment,China's export commodity price index, the average annual exchange rate as the main impact factors of the exports;according to the scatter plot analysis of variable correlation, remove part of the variables that don't have obvious correlations to exports ; and then remove some of the non-stationary variables through the sequence of stability test of time series, establish multiple linear regression model by the residual variables , and further verify that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables by cointegration test , and the results show that the GDP of the partner countries has the most significant impact on exports, followed by imports. When Imports, foreign direct investment, partner country GDP changes a percentage point, exports will changes 0.63,0.26,1.36 percentage points respectively.Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of export trade, this paper compares the export trade of Guangdong Province with Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province.The analysis shows that the export volume of Guangdong Province is larger than that of Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province, and the processing trade occupies an important position in trade volume . And foreign-funded enterprises are important parts of the main body of the export. On the side of foreign trade dependence, Guangdong Province is higher than Jiangsu Province, Shandong Province, leading that Guangdong Province is particularly sensitive to the changes of the international market ; Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province are better than Guangdong Province on the market structure . In the aspect of trade friction, the trade friction situation of the three provinces is very severe.At the end of the article, according to the characteristics of foreign trade, some reasonable countermeasures are put forward.