Study On The Regulation Policy Of Commercial Housing Market Based On System Dynamics

In recent years,with the rapid development of China's economy,the real estate industry has maintained a relatively rapid development rate.Since the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC,China has made many explorations in the construction of housing system.The regulation of real estate pays more attention to the role of market regulation,and the housing security system is gradually improved.The regulation policy of commercial housing market has a long period and should not be adjusted frequently.For policy makers,it is of great significance to make a correct prediction of the effect of the regulation policy.For developers,only by grasping policy trends and regulatory effects and catering to market demand,can we establish a healthy and long-term development model of the real estate market.The commercial housing market is highly correlated with other related industries,and the factors involved are complex and diverse.Therefore,this paper intends to establish a dynamic analysis model of Shenyang's commercial housing market through the system dynamics analysis of supply,demand and price of Shenyang's commercial housing market.This paper expounds the concept of commodity housing market from three aspects:demand for commodity housing,supply of commodity housing and price of commodity housing.Explains the formation mechanism of commodity housing price and the theory of supply-demand equilibrium,and summarizes the characteristics of commodity housing market.From the land policy,financial policy and tax policy,this paper analyses the influencing factors of commodity housing market and the influence path of regulation policy on housing market.This paper introduces the principles and basic steps of system dynamics modeling,and analyses the advantages of using system dynamics method to study the commodity housing market.This paper introduces the situation of land supply,development investment,completion of construction and sale in Shenyang commercial housing market,and summarizes the general situation of Shenyang commercial housing market by comparison.Five operational subsystems of commodity housing market are established:population subsystem,demand subsystem,supply subsystem,cost subsystem and policy subsystem,and then integrated into the general system of commodity housing market.Based on the basic data of the commodity housing market in Shenyang,the equation between variables is established through existing research and methods.The equation between variables and the basic data are imported into the model for trial operation.After debugging,the model meets the anticipated requirements and builds a simulation model in line with the actual situation of Shenyang commercial housing market.It forecasts Shenyang's commodity housing supply,commodity housing demand and commercial housing price.Using the established system dynamics simulation model of Shenyang commercial housing market,the simulation experiments of single policy and comprehensive policy of the commercial housing market are carried out.Research shows:Among the single means of regulation and control,the increase of interest rate has the most obvious impact on housing demand,and the decrease of land supply leads to a significant decline in housing supply.At the same time,the impact of land supply and interest rate adjustment on housing prices is relatively obvious.From the simulation results of the comprehensive policy,it can be seen that the three policies of 10%reduction of land supply,10%increase of interest rate and tax rate at the same time have the most obvious impact on housing demand.The reduction of land supply and the increase of tax rate have a greater impact on housing supply.The reduction of land supply,the increase of interest rate and tax rate have the greatest impact on housing price,with an increase of 9.04%.Based on the established system dynamics simulation model and policy regulation experiment,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from three aspects:land policy,financial policy and market policy.