Study On The Fluctuation Of Maize Price And Its Influencing Factors In Anhui Province

Corn is one of the three major food crops in China and plays a very important role in the National grain production.With the rapid development of the corn industry,the market demand for corn has gradually increased,and the market price of corn has gradually increased.In 2015,the country reduced the price of corn for the first time.The price of corn continues to fall.Along the huaibei area of Anhui province,the southern end of the yellow huaihai corn belt,corn is the main planting crop of farmers in our province,corn price fluctuations have an important impact on farmers 'income.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the corn price fluctuation in Anhui province and its influencing factors to promote the increase of employment,realize the healthy and sustainable development of corn industry and guarantee the National food security.This paper uses empirical analysis method,combined with the maize price data of Anhui province from 1990 to 2017,and uses the H-P filter method to separate the annual maize price of Anhui province into trend component and periodic component,in order to explore the real situation of price fluctuation.On the basis of the corn price formation mechanism,using the corn price as the interpreted variable,the multivariate regression model is constructed by using Spss software,and the possible factors affecting the corn price fluctuation in Anhui Province are analyzed.According to the research results,the reference opinions and suggestions are put forward to stabilize the corn price in Anhui Province.This study shows that:(1)The price trend of corn in Anhui Province is basically the same as that of the average corn price in the country.It has a long-term trend of steady growth,and it is currently in a period of declining fluctuations.From the perspective of cycle composition,from 1990 to 2017,the price of corn in Anhui Province experienced ten cycles,which had the characteristics of high frequency of fluctuations,medium range of fluctuations,longer contraction period than expansion period,and strong recovery ability.(2)The main factors that have a significant impact on the volatility of corn prices in Anhui Province include affected areas,wheat prices and producer price expectations.Among them,the most influential area is the affected area,which has a significant positive relationship with the price of corn;Secondly,the price of wheat substitutes has a positive relationship with the price of corn,and the producer price expectation has a significant negative correlation with the price of corn.In view of this,the following suggestions are put forward for stabilizing the price of corn in Anhui Province and protecting food security:First,improving agricultural infrastructure and reducing the impact of natural disasters;The second is to enhance disaster early warning and risk prevention capabilities;The third is to improve the corn market information service and establish a corn price warning platform;Fourth,steadily advance policy reform and give full play to the role of market allocation.