The Influence Factors Of Pig Price Fluctuations In Anhui Province

Pig price fluctuation has become a global issue,whether in China or the United States of highly developed in pig industry,prices of live pigs show different levels of volatility.As a major pig producing province,the pig price fluctuation of Anhui province is also increasingly frequent,not only affect the production enthusiasm of farmers,also have an impact to the consumption demand of residents.So researching the rules and influence factors of price fluctuation of live pigs,and concluding the countermeasures and suggestions of slowing live pig price fluctuations is of great significance to increase farmers income,meet the residents' basic consumption demand,promote the smooth development of pig industry.Based on the monthly price of pigs in Anhui province as the research object,on the basis of summarizing the related literature at home and abroad,first of all,using the equilibrium price theory,elastic theory and the cobweb theory explain the price formation and fluctuation of live pigs.Second,analyzing the characteristics of price fluctuation of live pigs in Anhui province from two aspects of year-on-year growth rate of pig price among years and relative volatility of pig price within the year,using the HP filter and seasonal index to study law of periodic and seasonal of price fluctuation of live pigs.Then,analyzing the influence factors of price fluctuation of live pigs using descriptive statistics,including demand factors: income level,population quantity and structure,chicken price,pork price,consumer price index;supply factors:pig production,sow number,feed price,piglet price;And other factors such as seasonal consumption habits,epidemic diseases,government policy.Finally,using empirical analysis to research the monthly fluctuations in the price of live pigs from three aspects of long-term,short-term and dynamic effect of mutual influence of variables respectively.Results show that hog price expectations and pork price are the main factors influencing the pig price fluctuations in the short term,due to the interaction between various factors,hog price and consumer price index have the most significant on the influencing other factors,so,keep a stable macroeconomic environment and the pig price stability are the key of the current work.On this basis,this paper puts forward the following suggestions: establish a pig market information publishing platform,improve the level of mass breeding pigs,improve the pork reserve system,strengthen the construction of pig disease prevention and control system and speed up the promotion of hog futures.