Evaluation Of Agricultural Water And Land Resources Carrying Capacity In County Ares Of Anhui Province

Water resources and land resources are the prerequisites of agricultural production,therefore a good coordination between water and land resources and a thorough understanding of the carrying capacity of water and land resources in regional agriculture are the preconditions to ensure the sustainable development of regional agriculture.Anhui is one of the major provinces with large scale agricultural production in China.To push forward the high quality and sustainable agricultural development in Anhui province,it is of great significance to understand the natural endowment of water and land resources in Anhui,which includes the quantitative calculation and scientific evaluation on the carrying capacity and spatial distribution of agricultural water and land resources as well as the identification of the key factors constraining the carrying capacity of water and land resources.In this article,a county-level study on the carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources in Anhui was conducted.Based on the "Pressure-State-Response" Model,a set of indicators for evaluating the carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources were developed and constructed,which included 1 target layer,3 criteria layer and 15 specific indicators.Furthermore TOPSIS method was adopted to quantitatively calculate and evaluate the carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources in 61 counties of Anhui province for the year of 2016.On the basis of the above calculation and evaluation,the obstacle factors restricting agricultural carrying capacity were diagnosed and identified by using the Obstacle Degree Model.The key conclusions of this study include:(1)The endowment of water and land resources in Anhui province is rich in general,but low in per capita resources,and there is obvious imbalance in spatial distribution in terms of resource allocation.(2)The overall level carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources in Anhui province is relatively low.Among the 61 counties,there are 2 counties in high surplus state,5 counties in surplus state,5 counties in equilibrium state,18 counties in early warning state and 31 counties in overload state,therefore,the average carrying capacity of the agricultural water and land resources of the whole province is in the early warning state,and the development between counties is unbalanced.In terms of the evaluation on indicators of different categories,the overall carrying capacity of the agricultural water and land resources in Anhui province is at a medium level,and the response indicators and state indicators are at a low level.(3)The spatial distribution of the carrying capacity of the agricultural water and land resources in Anhui province is significantly unbalanced,showing a trend that the carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources is increasing successively in the north,the middle and the south of Anhui province,where the high surplus and surplus areas are concentrated in the south,the overload areas are concentrated in the north,and the areas in the middle of Anhui are transition areas.(4)The obstacle degree diagnosis shows that the response system has the highest obstacle degree to the improvement of the carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources,followed by the state system,and the pressure system has the lowest obstacle degree.At the level of specific indicators,the obstacle factors with commonality are water and land resources coordination degree,per capita share of water resources,multiple cropping index,forest coverage rate and land productivity.Based on the above conclusions,this article puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions to improve the carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources in Anhui province.The protection of water and land resources should be strengthened in the north of Anhui,where the utilization efficiency of water and land resources should be improved.In the middle of Anhui,the level of agricultural materials and equipment should be improved to promote the coordinated development of economy,resources and environment.Moreover,the advantages of the endowment of agricultural water and land resources should be brought into play in the south of Anhui to facilitate the agricultural development with high quality and efficiency.