Study On Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On Stage Of Economic Development

In recent years, water shortage crisis due to the rapid expansion of city size and the accelerated process of urban industrialization in some cities has become an important factor which restricting sustainable socio-economic development. Traditional research lacks of in-depth study in the respects of the socio-economic development process and the stage which have a driving role in water resources carrying capacity. Based on summarizing a number of research results, this paper analyses the coordination of urban water resources development and socio-economic development from the perspective of stage of economic development by selecting three main indicators of water use(comprehensive water consumption per capita, comprehensive water consumption per 10000 yuan GDP and water consumption per 10000 yuan added value of industrial), in order to provide a new analysis approach in study on driving factors for water resources carrying capacity. A generalized index system for evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Dalian is established based on screening and testing indicators for water resources carrying capacity assessment. In order to provide a standard for quantitatively describing the status of water resources carrying capacity, the status of water resources carrying capacity is classified as level of the lowest, lower, middle, higher and the highest. Then, the standard values of five levels of 8 single indicators are designed and given.In order to establish the index system for evaluation of the stage of economic development of Dalian, the indexes of income, industry development, urbanization, technology development, consumption and environment development are applied to comprehensively measure the stage of city economic developmentornd of Dalian. For the purpose of international comparison, the stage of economic development in China is classified as level of primary industrialization, intermediate industrialization, advanced industrialization, primary post-industrialization and advanced post-industrialization. Then, the standard values of five levels of 6 single indicators are designed and given. The standard values of these indicators can provide a standard for quantitative assessment of model for the evaluation of the stage of economic development. Variable fuzzy recognition model is applied to analyze the water resources carrying capacity and stage of economic development assessment of Dalian from 1996 to 2009. The result shows that the state of water resources carrying capacity and economic development in Dalian improved synchronously on the whole, but in recent years, the trend of water resources development lag behind the social and economic development begins to appear. On this basis, the water resources carrying capacity of Dalian in 2020 and 2030 is calculated respectively in terms of three different water supply scenarios. Finally, two methods of improving the water resources carrying capacity are displayed, to provide decision support for water resources administrators.