Preliminary Study On Monitoring And Early Warning Of Soil And Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Tibet Autonomous Region

Natural Resources Are the Material Foundation to Support the Sustainable Development of Human Economy and Society.As an important part of natural resources,land and water resources are an important measure of the coordination of human-land relations and the level of regional sustainable development.To carry out monitoring and early-warning research on regional water and soil resource carrying capacity will help deepen the implementation of the Central and State Council's strategic plan for deepening the reform of the ecological civilization system,guide and restrict all regions in formulating economic and social development plans in strict accordance with the carrying capacity of resources and the environment.This article aims to build a monitoring and early warning mechanism for the carrying capacity of water and land resources in the Tibet Autonomous Region,and will provide a comprehensive and systematic understanding of the status quo of land and water resources carrying capacity in the Tibet Autonomous Region,make overall plans for the use of land and water resources in the Tibet Autonomous Region,and ease the conflicts between land and water resources and economic and social development in the Tibet Autonomous Region.It is hoped that while ensuring the sustainable use of land and water resources in the Tibet Autonomous Region,it will promote the economic and social development of the Tibet Autonomous Region and raise the living standards of the people in the region,providing scientific and technological support for the effective regulation and control of regional resources and environmental pressure.This article first analyzes the necessity and practical significance of carrying out studies on the monitoring and early warning mechanism of land and water resources carrying capacity in the Tibet Autonomous Region,systematically elaborates relevant theoretical knowledge of water and soil resource carrying capacity,outlines the concept connotation of water and soil resource carrying capacity,the progress of monitoring and early warning of water and soil resource carrying capacity at home and abroad,and the relationship between water and soil resource carrying capacity,resource and environmental bearing capacity,and sustainable development,and lays aIV theoretical foundation for the monitoring and early warning research on water and soil resource carrying capacity in Tibet Autonomous Region;next it systematically analyzed the geographical location,natural environment conditions and economic and social conditions of the Tibet Autonomous Region and built a set of monitoring and early warning indicators for regional water and soil resource carrying capacity that are applicable to the actual conditions in the Tibet Autonomous Region;comprehensively considered international,national and local water and land resource management guidelines or industry standards and relevant research results,the article determine the threshold interval of monitoring and early warning indicators,and then divide the red,orange,and yellow three-level warning levels;selecting 2005-2014 as the research period,combined with analytic hierarchy process and expert scoring,carried out an empirical analysis of the monitoring and early warning indicators system for land and water resources carrying capacity in the Tibet Autonomous Region;the five-point system was used to score the actual standards of each monitoring and early-warning indicator,and the changes in the comprehensive carrying capacity of water and land resources in the Tibet Autonomous Region during the ten years were analyzed.The main conclusions of the dynamic monitoring and early warning research on regional water and soil resource carrying capacity are as follows:(1)The monitoring and early warning indicator system for land and water resources bearing capacity in the Tibet Autonomous Region,consisting of 1 target layer,2 criteria layers,4 element layers,and 11 monitoring and early warning indicators,was constructed in this study can well reflect the dynamic characteristics of land and water resources carrying capacity in the Tibet Autonomous Region,and can be applied to the monitoring and early warning of regional water and soil resource bearing capacity.(2)In the monitoring and early warning indicators for water resources carrying capacity in the Tibet Autonomous Region from 2005 to 2014,with the exception of per capita water resources,the remaining indicators showed a positive trend.The change in water consumption per ten thousand yuan of industrial added value and water consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP is the most obvious,the regionalwater use efficiency increases rapidly,the total amount of regional water use drops,and the rate of water quality compliance in water function areas increases.By 2014,water resources monitoring indicators have not reached the warning threshold.(3)The pressure on land resources in the Tibet Autonomous Region is relatively high.Among the monitoring and early warning indicators for land resources carrying capacity,the grass-animal balance index tends to be rationalized,and the proportion of ecological land is increasing.However,per capita food production,per capita arable land area,urban per capita construction land area and grassland degradation degree have a high alert level,and they are always in orange or red warning intervals.Grassland degradation is still an important ecological issue in the region.(4)From 2005 to 2014,the comprehensive carrying capacity of water and land resources in the Tibet Autonomous Region showed an upward trend.From 2005 to2011,the comprehensive carrying capacity of regional water and soil resources was in the orange warning zone.In 2012,it rose to the yellow warning zone.In 2013 and2014,it was the blue warning zone.The status of regional water and soil resources improved.(5)The monitoring indicators such as total regional water use,water quality standards in water functional areas,per capita arable land,grass-animal balance index,and grassland degradation level have a greater impact on improving regional comprehensive water and soil carrying capacity,and the response and regulation should be strengthened.(6)Based on the empirical analysis of the dynamic monitoring and early-warning of water and soil resource carrying capacity in the Tibet Autonomous Region from 2005 to 2014,the land and water resources regulation in the Tibet Autonomous Region is recommended as follows: ensure the water quality compliance rate of regional water functional areas,control the total amount of regional water use,and increase the utilization rate of water resources;protect the existing arable land and increase the grain output per unit area,Strengthen the implementation of ecological restoration projects to curb the degradation rate of grassland,and furtherenhance the comprehensive carrying capacity of regional water and land resources.