Research On Risk Management Of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project

With the advancement of urban rail transit construction in China,PPP has been popular among local governments as a new financing model.Due to the inherent participation of the urban rail transit PPP project,the large amount of investment,the large scale of project construction,and the long operating period of the project have increased the risks in the implementation process.How to effectively carry out project risk management has become an urgent problem to be solved.Based on this,this paper takes the urban rail transit PPP project as the research object,and combs the relevant literature on the risk of PPP project at home and abroad,based on public goods theory,stakeholder theory,game theory and information asymmetry theory,based on the risk of the project.Research on identification,risk assessment and risk sharing.Firstly,based on the summary of risk identification methods,this paper puts forward the idea of risk identification in this paper,namely: starting from the PPP project operation process,using risk decomposition(RBS method)and literature analysis method to obtain preliminary risk list,using case analysis and policy analysis Supplement the adjusted risk list,verify the final risk list through expert interviews,and use it as the basis for the risk evaluation index system.Secondly,through the introduction and comparison of risk assessment methods,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used for risk evaluation.Based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics method,the specific process of risk assessment of urban rail transit PPP project is expounded,which lays a foundation for obtaining the weight value of risk index and the quantitative value of the overall risk of the project.Thirdly,on the basis of clarifying the principle of risk sharing,a static game model is constructed for the government and private sector risk sharing scheme.The Nash equilibrium of the analysis model is only related to the risk bias coefficient,and the PPP project risk is divided into the government.Or the private sector alone and shared by the two parties.For the risk shared by both parties,a dynamic bargaining game model with incomplete information is constructed.The model is solved by the Haysany conversion theory,and the calculation method of the risk sharing ratio between the two parties is obtained.Finally,based on the risk identification,risk assessment and risk sharing process of PPP project,an empirical study was conducted on the PPP project ofPhase I of Xi'an Metro Line 9,and the overall risk level of the project was found to be moderate.The risk sharing plan is obtained through the expert questionnaire.For the risks shared by both parties,the dynamic bargaining game model under incomplete information confirms the ratio of the nominal and actual risk sharing between the government and the private sector,and analyzes the empirical results and proposes the key points.Risk prevention measures and recommendations for risk sharing between the government and the private sector.