Research On PPP Project Risk Of Urban Rail Transit Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

In recent years,China's urban rail transit has developed rapidly,and the future construction needs is strong.The large volume of funds required for the construction of urban rail transit projects and the high operating cost make the PPP model become an important supplement to the traditional construction mode.However,the urban rail transit project has the characteristics of long payback period and strong asset specificity.The PPP model has many characteristics,such as public-private cooperation,long contract period and complicated content.A series of project risks caused by Project characteristics and model characteristics may be the smooth implementation of the project a serious threat.Therefore,the objective and effective risk identification and evaluation of urban rail transit PPP project is very important.In order to objectively identify and evaluate the risk of PPP in urban rail transit,this paper starts from the characteristics of project and model,and explains the mechanism of key risk factors by using incomplete theory and opportunism.Secondly,this paper reviews the existing literatures on risk assessment of urban rail transit PPP project,and designs three evaluation dimensions,including the risk probability,the severity of risk occurrence and the uncontrollable degree of identified risk.The risk factors and risk classification were determined by using the Delphi questionnaire and the evaluation cloud of all dimensions and all risk factors was obtained by constructing the cloud and synthesizing the vertical and horizontal integration of the cloud.The study found that there are many risks and uncertainties in the urban rail transit PPP project,and the project characteristics are closely related to the project risk.Its asset-specific characteristics can lead to default risk,long-term complexity of the contract can lead to incomplete contract risk,other characteristics of the project model can lead to other risks.By using Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation,the risk assessment of S-city subway line 6 project was carried out.36 possible project risk factors were identified,and 19 key risk factors that could significantly influence the project were selected.The key risk factors are divided into three risk categories:"government-led risk","project company-led risk" and "macro factors-led risk".The results show that the probability of occurrence of S-city subway line 6 project risk is between "low" and "medium",and the severity of the risk consequence and the uncontrollable degree of the identified risk are between "medium" and "high".The probability of occurrence of the project risk and the severity of the consequences of the risk are almost "medium" and the level of uncontrollable risk is high,the overall risk level of the project is between "low" and"high".