Analysis Of The Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Cotton Price Fluctuation In Xinjiang Based On ARCH Model

The fluctuation of cotton price is the most important feature of cotton planting.These characteristics not only affect the interests of producers,but also have a certain impact on the balanced development of Xinjiang economy.Therefore,studying the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of cotton prices will help stabilize cotton prices in Xinjiang and increase the income of cotton farmers.It is of great significance to promote the steady development of Xinjiang economy and maintain social stability and long-term stability in Xinjiang.Based on the actual situation in Xinjiang,this paper sorts out the development status of cotton industry in Xinjiang from cotton planting area,planting area,output,import and export trade,and then uses the theories and research methods of agricultural economics,regional economics and other disciplines to select 2003.-The monthly cotton price data of Xinjiang in2017,using GARCH,GARCH-M,TARCH,EGARCH and other models to analyze the characteristics of cotton price fluctuations,using the ARCH model to analyze the influencing factors of cotton price fluctuations,and give targeted Conclusions and recommendations.It is divided into six chapters to discuss:Chapter?Introduction.This paper discusses the background and significance of the research,summarizes the research methods and conclusions of relevant literatures at home and abroad,determines the research ideas and research methods of this paper,and plans the structure,ideas and contents of the whole article.Chapter ? Define the relevant concepts and theoretical explanations.Define specific concepts such as cotton price,price fluctuation,economic fluctuation,economic cycle,etc.,and discuss demand theory,ARCH model,ARCH LM test,residual square correlation graph test and so on.Chapter ? The development status of cotton industry in Xinjiang.This paper introduces the specific distribution of cotton planting area,planting area,planting output,import and export trade,Cotton price change in Xinjiang in recent years,and further highlights the important position of Xinjiang in the national cotton industry.Chapter ? Analyze the characteristics of cotton price fluctuation in Xinjiang.Firstly,it analyzes the price fluctuation trend of Xinjiang and other cotton-producing areas in China;secondly,descriptively analyzes the characteristics of cotton price fluctuation in Xinjiang;again,pre-processes the cotton price data by natural logarithm;finally,the price series The ARCH effect test finds that it is applicable to the ARCH model.The GARCH,GARCH-M,TARCH,EGARCH and other models are used to analyze the cotton price fluctuation characteristics.It is found that the cotton price fluctuation in Xinjiang has significant clustering and does not have “highRisk,high-yield” and asymmetry,the impact of “price increase information” on cotton price volatility is greater than the impact of “price decline information” on cotton price volatility.Chapter ? Analyze the influencing factors of cotton price fluctuation in Xinjiang.From the aspect of planting area,inventory,policies,substitutes,etc.,the related factors affecting the price fluctuation of cotton in Xinjiang are discussed.Then the ARCH model is used to analyze the influencing factors affecting the price fluctuation of cotton in Xinjiang,and the cotton yield,international cotton price,Cotton yarn production and sliding tax are the main factors affecting the price fluctuation of cotton in Xinjiang.Chapter ? Based on the analysis of the development status of cotton industry in Xinjiang,the characteristics of cotton price fluctuations and the influencing factors,the main factors affecting the price fluctuation of cotton in Xinjiang are obtained.From the aspects of cotton planting scale layout,market information publicity and supervision,risk aversion and transfer,industrial chain construction and management,and safety production supervision system,suggestions for stabilizing cotton prices in Xinjiang are proposed.